呷哺呷哺 ( 00520.HK ) 2019年中报点评：同店继续承压，成本抬升考验运营，给予"增持"评级
机构：中信证券
评级：增持
公司发布中报：191H1实现收入327.13亿元/+27.4%，股东应占溢利41.64亿元//--21.7%，经调整净利12.1亿元//--2.00%%。公司餐厅门店扩张带动收入端保持快增，利润下降主要系应用国际财务报告准则第16条导致于最初数年计入损益表的开支总额较高，目前公司经营超01000家门店（平均租期55--88年），短期折旧与利息支出大幅增长拖累整体业绩。
▍开店节奏有序，同店继续承压。119H公司新开张76间呷哺餐厅及13间凑凑，关闭7间呷哺餐厅，门店数量达到955家，开店节奏总体有序，门店网络进一步延伸至华南地区，预计明年将拓展至20家。19H1公司同店增速下滑1.9%，其中北京/上海/天津/河北分别为-0.5%/-8.9%/-0.5%/10.8%，受经济下行及"老鼠门"事件负面影响，山东和东北地区同店增速下滑较为明显。市场在19Q1后对同店负增长已有所预期，18H1高基数（+7.3%）下公司加大促销力度；18年11-12月新开超100家呷哺餐厅和凑凑仍处在爬坡期，致全国平均翻台率由去年同期2.8x下降至2.4x。为此19H1公司主动对原材料涨价较快菜品进行主动提价，同时积极调整产品结构、增加茶饮和海鲜占比，陆续将呷哺门店翻新至2.0，带动客单价同比提升9.9%至57.4元。考虑下半年经济增长及外部竞争环境影响，维持全年同店约2%的低个位数增长。
▍折旧摊销大幅增长拖累盈利水平。19H1主要原材料价格涨幅明显，其中国内牛羊肉价格分别上涨13%和8%，进口羊肉价格同比涨幅达26%，公司通过提前采购及优化食材配比平滑价格波动影响，预计下半年供应商价格框架基本锁定的基础上食材成本影响将减弱。19H1员工人数增加至2.7万人/+25.4%，员工成本7.19亿元/+33.7%，主要由于最低时薪及法定社会保险提高影响，以及呷哺2.0门店小桌代替U型桌后团队配置调整；受IFRS16影响，公司租赁合同相关租金开支录于折旧及摊销项，物业租金及相关开支同比下降52.9%，折旧及摊销同比增加284%至3.74亿元（占收入比重提升至13.8%），净利率下滑3.8pcts至6.0%。
▍高端品牌凑凑成长迅速。19H1公司在全国的凑凑餐厅数量达61家，从凑凑餐厅赚取的收入同比增加150.2%至4.9亿元，录得餐厅层面经营利润6880万元（VS18H12280万元），预计湊湊2019-20年餐厅层面经营利润占公司整体比重将继续提升至12%-15%
▍风险因素：食品安全问题；开店进展低于预期；原材料价格波动影响等。
▍投资建议：公司门店扩张仍具备潜力，中高端品牌湊湊持续发力并逐渐成为公司收入和利润的新增长点。关注呷哺2.0门店翻新、外卖及即食火锅业务“呷煮呷烫”、茶饮独立品牌“茶米茶”等边际改善因素。考虑同店低速增长、原材料价格波动以及人力成本升高，以及IFRS16会计准则导致的折旧摊销增加影响，下调公司2019-2021年EPS预测至0.47/0.54/0.66元（原预测0.54/0.65/0.79元），对应19年动态PE约22倍，下调至"增持"评级。
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