希望教育(01765.HK)：成本费用管控改善，外延+内生成长空间可期，维持“买入”评级
机构：西南证券
评级：买入
投资要点
业绩总结：2019H实现营收5.9亿（yoy+12.6%），净利润2.4亿元（yoy+83.2%）；扣除2018同期上市费用、员工期权等影响的调整净利润2.6亿元（yoy+33.9%）。?人数增加推动营收增长，规模效应下毛利率有所提升。人数增加推动营收增长，规模效应下毛利率有所提升：公司2019H学费/住宿费/其他收入分别实现收入5亿元/4367.7万元/4675.6万元，同比分别增长11.5%/3.9%/38.2%，主要受益于在校生总数的快速增长。截至2019H，公司下属学校共9所（包括3所本科、5所专科及1所技师学院），总在校生增至8.6万人（yoy+13.7%），生均学费5860元（yoy-2%），校舍利用率提升至82.1%（yoy+3.1pp），规模效应有所体现，推动整体毛利率提升3.8pp至53.1%。
费用管控能力提升，盈利能力显著改善。招生人员数量及薪酬增加导致销售费用率小幅提升至2%（yoy+0.3pp），上市费用影响消除及收购费用减少推动管理费用率大幅降低降至11.6%（yoy-9.7pp），剔除2018上半年1153万上市费用影响则管理费用率同比亦大幅下降7.8pp。利息支出减少+可转换工具终止确认，财务费用率下降至12.5%（yoy-7.8pp）。有效的费用管控+毛利率提升推动公司净利率提升至40.9%（yoy+15.7pp），调整净利率提升至60%（yoy+23.7pp），盈利能力显著改善。
外延节奏紧凑+内生增长可期，在手现金充裕，成长空间仍广阔：1）外延方面：公司于7月-8月先后收购贵州大学科技学院（本科）、鹤壁汽车工程职业学院（专科）、苏州托普信息职业技术学院及昆山技工学校（专科）、银川能源学院（本科）4所院校，贵州大学科技学院已于7月并表，其余院校大概率9月可完成并表，整体有望贡献在校生增量3.4万人；2）内生方面有望继续通过自建学校，2018年至今已公告4所自建计划，储备丰富，以及现有学校学生数量增加延续快速成长。截止2019H公司账上现金26亿元，在手现金充裕，资产负债率相较期初下降至46.5%，资产结构不断优化，加之年初至今职业教育行业利好逐渐释放，公司作为国内龙头民办高校集团，看好未来内生+外延广阔增长空间。?盈利预测与评级。预计2019-2021年EPS分别为人民币0.07元、0.08元、0.10元，对应PE分别为18X、16X、12X，考虑到公司作为西部高教龙头，内生外延增长潜力较大，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：产业政策变动的风险，学校招生或不及预期的风险，外延并购或不及预期的风险，业务整合或不及预期的风险，规模扩张带来的管理风险。
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