永达汽车( 03669.HK )： 业绩符合预期，盈利环比改善，给予“买入”评级，目标价9.0港币
机构：中信证券
评级：买入
目标价：9.0港币
上半年公司收入同比+16.8%，归母净利润同比+1.6%，售后维修业务持续增长，但二手车和汽车金融业务增速放缓。公司当前估值具有吸引力，短期受益于车市销量回暖，长期受益于车市消费升级，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
▍公司H1收入同比16.8%，，归母净利润同比+1.6%。公司2019H1实现综合营业收入296.3亿元，同比+16.8%；毛利率为11.1%，环比2018H2的10.2%提升0.9pcts。公司上半年实现净利润7.82亿元，同比+1.6%；归母净利润为7.34亿元，同比+1.5%，环比+38.6%。分业务来看，公司上半年新车销量达9.5万台，同比+17.9%，实现单车毛利0.62万元，同比18H1的0.79万元减少21.5%。公司售后服务收入同比+14.7%，售后服务毛利率同比减少0.3pcts到46.1%；金融自营业务收入2.46亿元，业务同比+0.4%；保险及其代理服务收入13.1亿元，同比+11.0%。
▍H1现金流大幅提高25.2亿元，净负债比率稳步下降18.0pcts。公司2019H1经营活动现金净流入29.8亿元（18H1为4.6亿元），同比涨幅达到25.2亿元，现金流得到改善。公司对存货周转天数进行了严格控制，2019H1的平均存货周转天数为36.7天，2018H1的平均存货周转天数为54.2天，同比减少17.5天。公司2019H1平均应收账款周转天数为5.6天，比2018H1减少1.0天。公司运营资本管理水平稳步提升，净负债比例同比下降18.0pcts，降至101.0%。
▍二手车、汽车金融业务增长放缓。公司2019H1销售二手车1.98万辆，同比+2.8%，低于去年+19%的增速。上半年，公司金融和保险代理服务收入5.3亿元，同比+14.0%；金融和保险业务收入7.8亿元，同比+9.3%；金融自营业务收入2.5亿元，同比+0.4%。公司短期二手车业务增长放缓与上半年汽车市场不景气有关，汽车金融受制于融资成本上行而稍有减速。长期来看，二手车和汽车金融类业务对比海外还有增长空间，有望持续为公司做出利润增量。
▍风险因素：乘用车销量回暖不达预期；利率上行侵蚀经销商盈利能力；行业终端爆发价格战。
▍投资建议：预测公司2019/20/21年归母净利润15.5亿/17.4亿/18.6亿元。当前股价7.06港币，对应2019/20/21年PE分为7.4/6.5/6.1倍。公司盈利环比改善，长期受益于消费升级。考虑到当前市场风险偏好，给予公司合理估值为2019年10倍PE，目标价9.0港币，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
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