工商银行(01398.HK)：业绩符合预期，手续费收入及存款增速是亮点，维持“买入"评级，目标价6.9港元
机构：招商银行
评级：买入
目标价：6.9港元
8月29日，工商银行公布2019年上半年业绩，净利润同比增长4.7%至1,679亿元人民币，占我们/市场一致预期全年净利润预测的53.7%/54.4%。二季度拨备前利润同比增长7.1%，主要由于净利息收入（同比增长7.5%）和净手续费收入的强劲增长（同比增长12.5%）。减值拨备同比持平，抵消了去年二季度低基数因素导致的所得税增长带来的负面影响。单季净利润同比增速由一季度的4.1%提升至二季度的5.2%。工行将于9月3-4日在北京举办业绩会及反向路演。
业绩正面因素：1长）上半年净手续费收入同比增长11.7%，主要由结算清算及担保承诺类业务收入拉动。工行的非息收入占比因此由2018年的24%提升至21%。2）存款增速强劲，较年初增长8.0%，为大行中最高增速，同时也高于该行贷款的同期增速5.5%。贷存比环比下降1.7个百分点至70.4%。3）资产质量持续改善，）资产质量持续改善，二季度不良贷款率环比下降3个基点至1.48%，拨备覆盖率则上升6.2个百分点至192%。逾期贷款及关注类贷款占比同样下降7个基点及21个基点，至1.68%及2.71%。4）风险加权资产密度下降，二季度风险加权资产环比增速（0.7%）明显低于总资产增速（2.5%），可能由于零售贷款投放速度高于对公贷款。
业绩负面因素：1）二季度净息差环比收缩4个基点至2.27%，与其他大行水平相若。由于存款成本增长，上半年负债成本较去年下半年上升10个基点，抵消了资产收益率同比5个基点的增长。不过，上半年净息差同比仅下降一个基点，明显好于建设银行（939HK，买入）同比下降7个基点的表现。2）二季度成本收入比同比增长）二季度成本收入比同比增长0.6个百分点，可能由于在科技方面的投入增加。3）上半年年化）上半年年化ROE下降0.8个百分点至14.7%，主要由于盈利增速放缓。
至维持「买入」评级，下调目标价至6.9港元。工商银行目前的估值为0.63倍2019年预测市帐率，较其五年历史平均值0.7倍低10%。我们维持盈利预测不变，但将目标价由7.6港元下调至6.9港元，主要由于我们将可持续ROE假设下调至12.8%，并将权益成本（COE）假设提升至14.0%以及将港元对人民币汇率假设调整至0.897。
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