禹洲地产(01628.HK)：业绩符合预期，销售有望发力，维持“买入”评级，目标价5.70港元
机构：中泰证券
评级：买入
目标价：5.70港元
业绩符合预期，财务非常稳健
19年上半年股东应占核心净利润同比增20.6%至14.0亿人民币，基本符合我们的预期。增长动力有：1）收入同比增25.9%至116.4亿人民币；2）SG&A占收入比重由去年同期的5.3%下降至4.3%。毛利率由去年同期的31.5%下降至27.0%，部分被利息资本化率上升以及实际税率下降抵消，核心应占净利润率由去年同期的12.5%略微下降至12.0%。财务负债表非常健康，截止到19年中：净负债率由18年底的67.0%上升至72.7%，低于我们预期的78.4%；公司把握1H19的窗口发行长期险美元债，短债比由18年底的37.7%下降至24.6%；现金达357.2亿人民币，现金对短债比显著提升至2.85x。公司宣派每股0.12港元中期股息加每股0.03港元的特别股息，派息率46.8%；合资格股东可选以股代息。
多元化拿地渠道支持公司冲刺千亿规模
19年销售达标可期。19年上半年合约销售同比增长32.5%至285亿人民币，完成目标的43%；销售面积同比增17.4%至185.3万平方米，均价15,366元/平方米。下半年可售货值预计800亿，意味着只需48%的去化率就可达成全年670亿的目标，考虑1）下半年货值90%位于一二线城市；2）2H19推货的政策压力小于2H18，我们对公司19年销售达标非常有信心。管理层亦在业绩会上重申了2020年销售达千亿的目标，我们相信公司多元化的拿地渠道有助于这一目标的实现。19年上半年公司新增14幅地块，过半为低溢价或零溢价；总建面212.5万平方米（81.9%位于一二线，25%由收并购获取），总成本236.0亿人民币，平均地价11,106元/平方米；我们相信公司在旧改及产城结合领域的耕耘将进入收获期，下半年有望见到项目落地。截止19年底，公司总土储达1,918万平方米，较18年底增加10.4%，平均土地成本人民币5,580元/平方米，40.3%位于长三角区域。
调整盈利预测，重申5.70港元的目标价，维持买入评级
调整交付节奏以及采用更保守的毛利率假设，我们分别下调19-21年应占核心净利润预测8.2%、6.6%、9.4%。公司目前的股价对应3.3倍的20年市盈率，12.0%的20年股息率。我们认为，1）更多长三角一体化及上海新自贸区政策利好释放；2）19年销售增速好于预期，3）旧改/产城结合项目落地有望成为中短期催化剂。我们维持5.70港元的目标价，对应5.7倍的20年PE，目标价对应现价有64.3%的潜在升幅；我们最新估计的19年末净资产价值为9.07港元/股，目标价对应37.1%的净资产折让。
风险提示：（一）房地产政策大幅收紧；（二）人民币汇率波动
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