农业银行(01288.HK)：资产质量改善，但净息差显著承压，维持“买入“评级，目标价4.50港元
机构：招商银行
评级：买入
目标价：4.50港元
8月30日，农业银行公布2019年上半年业绩，净利润同比增长4.9%至1,214亿元人民币，占我们/市场一致预期全年净利润预测的56.3%/57.8%。上半年拨备前利润同比大致持平，主要由于净息差收窄，净利息收入增长乏力（同比增速1.9%）。不过，受惠于经营开支的下降（同比降低10.2%）及拨备计提力度的减弱（同比降低4.7%），单季净利润同比增速由一季度的4.3%提升至二季度的5.5%。
业绩正面因素：1）上半年净手续费长收入同比增长16.6%，主要来自于顾问咨询、银行卡及电子银行业务。农行的非息收入占比由2018年的18.3%提升到了今年上半年的22.4%。2）降上半年成本收入比同比下降0.8个百分点至28.4%，主要由于一般营运及管理费用的下降。3）贷款较年初增长8.8%，为四大行中最高增速，对公及零售贷款增速均衡，分别增长9.1%及8.6%。收益率较高的信用卡取得高速增长，上半年增速达到19.4%，逾期率保持相对可控。4）资产质量持续改善，二季度不良贷款率环比下降9个基点至1.43%，拨备覆盖率环比提升14.4个百分点至278.4%。逾期贷款及关注类贷款同样实现“双降”。信贷成本环比下降48个基点至0.90%；我们预期2019年下半年也将维持较低水平，以缓解收入端增长动能的减弱。
业绩负面因素：1）根据我们的测算，窄二季度净息差环比收窄10个基点至2.11%。资产端收益率今年上半年较去年下半年仅上升2个基点，同期存款成本则上升17个基点。作为银行间的净拆出方，同业市场利率的下行也对农行的净息差形成了挤压。2）二季度存款增速乏力，环比仅增长0.4%，同时活期存款占比下降0.6个百分点至57.0%。3）2019年上半年年化ROE同比下降1.3个百分点至14.7%，主要由于净利润增速为4.9%，并无超预期表现。
?维持「买入」评级，下调目标价至4.5港元。农行目前的估值为0.54倍2019年预测市帐率，较其自身五年历史平均值0.63倍低14%。我们保持盈利预测不变，但将目标价由5.3港元下调至4.5港元，主要由于我们将可持续ROE假设降低至12.3%、权益成本（COE）假设提升至14.5%以及将港元对人民币汇率假设调整至0.897。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
