海通证券(06837.HK)：股票质押贷款风险受控，维持“增持”评级，目标价10.60港元
机构：银河证券
评级：增持
目标价：10.60港元
■2019上半年净利润较去年的低基数同比飙升82.4％。
■股票质押贷款规模从2018年底的534亿元人民币下降至2019年6月底的488亿元人民币。
■管理层将继续优化股票质押贷款组合。
■考虑到中美贸易争端带来不确定性，我们将公司2019/2020年每股盈利预测下调12.4％/15.2％，以反映我们更为保守的收入预测。
■维持「增持」评级，最新目标价为10.60港元。
上半年业绩强劲复苏
海通证券上半年净利润为55亿元人民币，同比增长82.4％。总收入同比增长31％至210亿元人民币。受惠一季度A股市场向好，公司净投资收益同比增长213％至58亿元人民币。另外，日均成交额在2019年上半年回升至5,900亿元人民币（2018年上半年为4,410亿元人民币）也对中期业绩构成支持。佣金和手续费收入（主要来自经纪、投行和资管）同比增长16％至62亿元人民币。
股票质押贷款风险下降
过去，海通证券是股票质押贷款市场中最活跃的券商之一，这是导致股份估值较低的主因之一，因为投资者担心资产负债表会否受影响，特别是去年A股表现疲弱。而公司一直在优化其投资组合以控制有关风险。股票抵押贷款余额已从2018年底的534亿元人民币下降至今年6月底的488亿元人民币。由于2019上半年A股市场表现强劲，加上获得“纾困基金”的支持，因此我们认为总体风险可控，除非A股市场意外急跌。
融资业务逐步复苏
另一方面，融资融券余额从2018年底的347亿元人民币增至今年6月底的396亿元人民币。因此，与2018年底相比，今年6月底的融资业务整体规模大致持平。由于融资业务的客户群一般较多元化，因此相信该业务的风险相对较低。
融资租赁收入稳健增长
2019上半年融资租赁收入同比增长39.7％至23.6亿元人民币。海通恒信（1905.HK）于6月成功上市，将有助海通证券租赁业务增长，同时不会对公司构成太大融资压力。
维持增持评级
考虑到中美贸易争端带来不确定性，我们将公司2019/2020年收入预测下调6.6％/5.9％，并相应地将2019/2020年每股盈利预测下调12.4％/15.2％。因此，我们亦将戈登增长模型目标价从14.20港元（约1.13倍2019年市净率）降至11.70港元（Beta值为1.2；股权成本为8.4％；中期股本回报率为8.4％（之前为9％）），相当于0.98倍2019年市净率。我们采用了10％折让以得出目标价10.60港元，该折让是反映公司拟议发行A股所带来的潜在摊薄效应。该股现时2019年市净率仅0.65倍。如果公司未来数季业绩继续反映股票质押贷款风险受控，股份有望获得重新估值。
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