希望教育( 01765.HK) ：并购集中落地，规模成长可期，维持“买入”评级
机构：国信证券
评级：买入
业绩符合预期，费用率显著下降
希望教育2019H1实现收入5.95亿元，同比增长12.6%；净利润2.43亿元，同比增长82.2%；调整后的核心净利润2.56亿元，同比增长33.9%。公司业绩整体符合预期。
2019H1公司毛利率53.1%，较去年同期提高3.8%，主要得益于成本管控导致成本增速小于收入增速。净利率39.6%，较去年同期大幅提高15.9%，主要得益于管理费用率和财务费用率的明显降低。其中，管理费用率11.2%，较去年同期下降8.8%。财务费用率12.1%，较去年同期下降7.0%。
并购集中落地，规模有望持续增长
截至2019H1，公司在校生人数8.6万人，同比增长14%；现有学校利用率82%，最大容纳量10.5万人，内生仍有增长空间。公司近期连续公告3所学校并购，上市以来共公告4个并购和3个自建项目。待并购学校陆续并表后，公司在校生人数将超过12万人，规模有望持续增长
负债规模预计保持，债务结构有望持续优化
截至2019H1，公司有息负债共计21.31亿元，较去年同期下降8.11亿元；其中长期借款15.55亿元，短期借款5.76亿元；有息资产负债率28.4%，较去年同期的48.2%有明显下降。
我们认为，公司未来1-2年内自建项目和已有学校所需Capex较大，并仍将持续推动外延并购扩张，因此短期内大规模偿还借款的概率不大。公司未来将推动债务结构优化，从而优化财务费用，但负债规模可能会继续保持。
上调公司收入盈利预测，维持“买入”评级
我们暂不考虑可能并表的几所学校，预测公司2019-2021年的收入分别为13.41、15.88和17.39亿元，同比增速34%、18%和16%；净利润分别为4.12、5.81和6.93亿元，同比增速57%、41%和19%。2019年8月30日收盘价对应2019-2021年的预测PE分别为19.7X、14.0X和11.7X。维持“买入”评级和1.63-2.08港元的合理估值区间。
风险提示
1.公司并购和投后整合不及预期；2.政策出台及落地不及预期；
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