中国通号(03969.HK)2019年中期业绩点评：中期业绩符合预期，登陆科创板开启发展新篇章，维持“买入”评级，目标价7.20港元
机构：光大证券
评级：买入
目标价：7.20港元
◆中期业绩稳健增长，符合预期中国通号公布2019年中期业绩，上半年实现收入205.1亿人民币，比增长8.5%；实现归母净利润22.7亿人民币，同比增长14.3%，符合预期。每股收益0.25元人民币（按照科创板发行新股摊薄后为0.21元人民币）。盈利能力随收入结构变化而改善，毛利率为23.3%，同比上升1.3个百分点；净利润率为11.9%，同比上升0.7个百分点。现金流大幅好转，经营活动的现金净流出为1.3亿元，净流出量较上年同期减少15.3亿元。
◆新签订单结构优化，其中铁路领域订单同比增长30%根据公司中报披露，上半年公司新签合同340.2亿人民币，同比增长5.3%。其中，铁路领域新签合同164.6亿人民币，同比增长30.1%，中标安九、鲁南等5个铁路项目，继续保持领先地位；城市轨道交通领域新签合同54.6亿人民币，同比下降9.9%，主要由于公司传统优势区域的招标集中在今年下半年；海外业务新签合同4.3亿人民币，同比增长15.6%；低利润率的工程总承包业务新签合同116.7亿人民币，同比下降11.7%。公司新签订单结构继续优化，高毛利的铁路订单增速领先，未来利润率有望提升。
◆成功登陆科创板，开启发展新篇中国通号是全球最大的轨道交通控制系统提供商，拥有集轨道交通制系统设计集成、设备制造及系统交付服务于一体的完整产业链。公司7月成功登陆科创板，发行18亿股A股股票，募集资金105亿元。公司的顺利募资，将为业务开展提供充足资金支持，并在产能扩张和技术研发方面提供长远帮助。随着铁路和城轨地铁市场进入通车高峰期，公司作为铁路和城市轨道交通控制系统的龙头，将直接受益于市场需求的快速成长。
◆盈利预测与评级
我们下调公司19-21年EPS预测至0.38/0.45/0.52元人民币，以反映公司发行新股对每股收益的摊薄，以及部分项目招标晚于预期对业绩的影响。维持H股目标价7.20港元，对应19年16倍PE，维持公司H股“买入”评级。公司是轨交控制系统龙头，对公司A股建议长期积极关注。
◆风险提示：政策变化风险、产品降价风险、海外市场拓展不顺风险。
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