大唐新能源(01798.HK)：费用上升大于收入增速，维持“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点：
2019年上半年业绩不及预期，费用上升拖累所致
公司披露2019年中期业绩，上半年公司实现主营业务收入人民币44.92亿元，同比增长2.9%，归母净利润人民币8.83亿元，同比减少6.72%，业绩表现低于我们的预期。上半年营业利润率为46%，同比下降3个百分点。主要原因是上半年发电收入增长缓慢，但经营费用同比上升9.2%，其中包括2019年上半年计提的81百万元的在建工程减值损失。
2019年上半年来风较差，售电收入增长缓慢
2019年公司上半年公司实现累计风电发电量9846GWH，同比增长4.3%，利用小时数1135小时，同比增加13小时，弃风率为5.62%，同比改善4.18个百分点。虽然弃风持续改善，但上半年来风情况总体差于去年同期，另外由于上网电价同比有所下降，导致公司上半年售电收入增长缓慢。我们预测在正常的来风情况下，全年利用小时数可达到2146小时，同比增长50小时，全年发电量同比增速可达8%。
19/20年风机加速投产
2019年上半年没有新投产装机，截止到6月30日，公司拥有在建项目容量1.9GW，在平价前窗口期内的2019-2020年将加速投产，我们预测2019-2021年公司新增风电装机容量为1000/1000/600MW。
应收账款持续上升
2019年上半年，公司应收账款和应收票据规模，同比增加35.4%至人民币96.9亿元，上半年共净新增22.2亿元应收账款。补贴回收方面，上半年回收6000万元，7月份回收约6.7亿元，由于一般是下半年补贴回收会加速，预计到年底应收规模也将维持在100亿元左右。
盈利预测与投资评级
2019年8月30日，大唐新能源收盘价0.74港元。我们预测2019-2021年EPS分别为人民币0.147/0.168/0.193元，并基于2019年6倍市盈率给予合理价值港币0.97元/股，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示
来风情况不达预期；新增装机不达预期；补贴、绿证等政策不确定性风险。
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