华能新能源(00958.HK)：控股集团提出全面要约，拟私有化退市，维持“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点：
拟获中国华能集团有条件自愿现金全面收购要约
2019年9月2日，华能新能源发布公告称，其控股股东中国华能集团拟就公司所有H股股份提出有条件自愿现金全面收购要约，如要约执行，公司将从香港交易所私有化退市。截至2019年9月2日，公司总股本包括55.35亿股内资股及50.31亿股H股，中国华能集团及其一致行动人士合共持有公司55.35亿股内资股，及3326.8万股H股，约占公司总股本的52.70%。
根据公告内容，目前要约的条款和详情尚未落实，可能要约、私有化和退市不一定会进行。
尚未公布收购价，公司股价受公告影响大幅上涨
公告中未尚披露收购价格，不过部分受到此公告影响，2019年9月2日公司股价大幅上涨，当天收盘价为2.64港元/股，涨幅为21.66%。同时，龙源电力、大唐新能源、华电福新、新天绿色能源等港股风电运营商，也受到华能新能源公告的带动影响，9月2日当日涨幅分别为5.57%/5.41%/3.82%/2.48%。
公司经营状况良好，当前港股风电运营商板块估值水平较低
2018-2019年，由于电价下调和补贴欠款规模快速增长等政策性风险，港股风电运营商板块估值水平持续承压。以公告前的最后交易日收盘价（8月29/30日）计算，华能新能源基于2019E的市净率为0.8x，龙源电力为0.6x，大唐新能源为0.4x。
公司业绩在2019年上半年保持稳定增长，中期业绩超出预期。并且公司计划在2019年-2020年加快对在建风电机组的投产力度，预计2019-2020年每年新增风电装机1200/1600MW，除去补贴欠款问题当前仍没有可持续的解决办法外，公司的经营运营情况均保持正常。在风电平价上网的趋势下，风电行业投资成本持续下降，并且公司通过对全国风电投资资源的测算和有效管理，保证未来新项目的投资回报率。
盈利预测和投资评级
2019年9月2日，华能新能源（00958.HK）最新收盘价2.64港元。我们预测2019-21年EPS为人民币0.355/0.407/0.442元，我们基于2019年7倍市盈率给予合理价值2.72港元/股，维持“买入”评级。如果私有化成功，再考虑到私有化对整个风电板块的估值提振后，我们预计实际的收购价格可能接近1倍PB。
风险提示
经营成本上升超预期；来风情况不达预期；新增装机不达预期风险。
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