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中国联塑(02128.HK):估值提升只是时间问题,维持“优于大市”评级,目标价9.10 港元
格隆汇 09-03 08:52

机构:建设银行

评级:优于大市

目标价:9.10 港元

预期毛利率将保持强劲,股息率将上升。联塑集团公布了强劲的2019年上半年业绩,得益于较高的利润率,收益高于我们的预期5%。我们看到公司已经逐渐将市场份额收益货币化,并将回报转化为更强的与客户和原材料供应商的议价能力。我们上调利润率预测,部分抵消销售放缓,得到2019F/2020F/2021F盈利预测上调6%/5%/4%。我们假设2019年股息率为35%,2020-2021年为40%,高于此前的30%。联塑集团目前市盈率为6-7倍,股息率为6-7%,仍然是我们在建材行业的首选。我们根据7.8倍市盈率将目标价上调15%,由7.90港元上调至9.10港元,基准财年由2019F滚动至2020F。

2019上半年业绩概览。根据我们的估计,联塑集团经常性净利润同比增长19%,而报表净利润同比增长21%。由于塑料管材业务增长放缓,收入增长也放缓,收入同比增长7%。2019年上半年管材产品销量从2018年上半年的4%同比放缓至2.5%,部分原因是年初以来中国南方地区雨季期间建筑活动放缓。华南地区收入占公司总收入的55%。由于塑料管材平均售价的上涨和成本的持平,利润率扩张明显。拟派发的中期股息为0.12港元,较上年同期增长20%,与盈利增长大体一致。

前景光明。我们预计,当前的宏观环境的挑战将加速中国塑料管管材行业的整合。目前这一行业仍然非常分散。作为一个拥有18-20%市场份额的强大生产商,联塑有可以通过市场份额的增加来延长自身利润当前的成长期。公司的海外扩张和不断增长的环境服务与塑料管材业务具有协同效应,并可能成为收入和收益的长期推动力。

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