海螺创业(586.HK)：业绩符合预期，逐步推进5年规划，维持“买入”评级，目标价32.27港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：32.27港元
投资要点
2019年上半年业绩符合预期。公司2019上半年营业收入达21.03亿元，同比增长106%，节能装备、垃圾处置、固危废、港口物流服务和新型建材收入分别为1.59、15.04、2.77、1.18和0.44亿元；其中固废、危废处理量分别从10.2、15.7万吨提高至17.1、27.3万吨，收入分别从0.32、1.14亿元提高至0.53、2.24亿元，危废处理量和处理收入大幅提高，垃圾处置量从39.9万吨提高至87.3万吨，吨发电量和吨上网电量分别提高29和22度至368和302kwh/吨，运营能力在持续加强。公司垃圾发电业务的建造收入为13.5亿元，是该板块的主要收入来源，毛利率从37.7%下降至25.6%，主要是上半年建设成本的提高导致建造收入的毛利率大幅下降。
固危废和垃圾发电业务产能扩张迅猛。截止到2019年8月公司固危废、垃圾发电的投产规模分别为164万吨、153万吨，同比大幅增加，公司预计2019年固危废和垃圾发电的投产规模分别245万吨、322万吨，超过原先的计划投产规模。预计到2023年固危废处置和垃圾发电的签约规模将会达到1000万吨和1800万吨，投产规模达到860万吨和1500万吨，产能扩张非常迅猛。
我们的观点：海螺创业（0586.HK）目前储备有大量的固危废和垃圾发电项目，与中建材等的合作项目在逐步推进当中，我们预计公司2019-2021财年营收分别为53.5、77.5和103.3亿元，主营业务经营利润分别提高8.5%、4.4%和4.8%至16.6、28.4和38.7亿元，归母净利润分别提高5.6%、降低3%和降低2.84至68.7、72.3和80亿元，基本EPS分别为3.88、4.09和4.52元，维持“买入”评级，目标价从34.65港元降至32.27港元。
风险提示：项目建设不及预期；环保监管力度下降；海螺水泥盈利大幅下降。
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