哔哩哔哩(BILI.US)：三季度收入指引强劲，MAU增长目标上修，维持“买入”评级，目标价18.8美元
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：18.8美元
投资要点
2Q19业绩超预期，下季度指引强劲。2Q19业绩：收入15.4亿（+50%，人民币，下同），比我们此前预测高5.7%，Non-GAAP归母净亏损2.54亿，比我们此前预测少4.5%。管理层预计2019年第三季度收入介于17.4~17.7亿（+61%~64%）。
MAU指引上调，今年底预计达1.3亿，2021年底预计达2.2亿。2Q19，公司平均月活跃用户数达1.104亿人（+30%）。管理层预计MAU到2019年底可达1.3亿（此前的目标为1.1-1.2亿），预计2021年底达2.2亿（此前的目标为1.5亿）。
分业务业绩概况：1）游戏：联运收入比例提升改善了利润率。二季度游戏收入9.2亿（+16%），占总收入的60%。截至二季度，公司有1款自研游戏（环比+0），16款独代游戏（环比+3），600余款联运游戏（环比+100）。
2）直播与VAS：保持高速增长，占比提升。二季度直播和VAS收入3.3亿元（+175%），占总收入的21%。直播收入空间仍有较大空间。3）广告：逆势增长，Z世代消费力与B站广告模式受到品牌认可。二季度广告收入1.7亿元（+75%），占总收入的11%。4）电商及其他：电商平台销售高速增长。二季度，电商与其他收入1.24亿元（+489%），环比增长29.4%。
投资建议：下调目标价0.9%至18.8美元，维持“买入”评级。公司2Q19业绩超预期，3Q19收入指引强劲。下半年公司计划在获取用户上进行更多的投入，短期拖累利润率，但换来用户的增长，有助于公司长期价值。我们基于更新的DCF模型下调目标价0.9%至18.8美元，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：核心游戏收入不及预期；新游戏受政策影响上线时间延后；内容监管风险；行业竞争加剧影响用户增长。
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