同程艺龙(00780.HK)：盈利能力超预期，Take rate承压，维持“买入”评级，目标价17.37 港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：17.37 港元
投资要点
2Q19业绩：营收符合预期，毛利低于预期，盈利大超预期。2Q19同程艺龙实现收入15.91亿元(YoY+21%)，符合我们预期(YoY+20.4%)；毛利润仅增8.92%至10.31亿，毛利率由2Q18的71.8%下降到64.7%，低于预期。此外，由于销售费用下降，经调整净利润为3.46亿元人民币，同比增长60%，Non-IFRS净利率由16.4%升至21.7%，略超我们预期（20.1%）。
MPU增长强劲，下沉策略彰显。2Q19，公司MAU为1.81亿，(YoY+15.4%)，MPU达2770万人(YoY+53.9%)，用户付费率提高至15.3%；公司约有85.5%的注册用户居于非一线城市，约有61.5%的新增MPU来自三线及以下城市（2018Q2：55.8%）。同时，GMV再创新高达413亿，同比增长42.9%。
在线住宿：交叉销售率升至23%,因业务主动调整，分销渠道收入占比滑至8%。19Q2，公司住宿预订服务收入为5.534亿，同比增加25.5%（18Q2:4.41亿），收入占比也由2Q18的33.5%升至34.8%，其中2Q19的平台增速超过40%；此外交叉销售率已达23%；分销渠道业务占比在下滑至8%。
我们认为，公司将继续主动调整分销业务，预计年底将下滑至5%以下
在线交通：因12306官方上线候补抢票+季节性因素需求减弱，Takerate下滑明显。我们估算1Q19整体交通业务的Takerate为4%左右，其中机票＞4%，2Q整体交通Takerate滑至2.7%，其中机票约3.5%，我们预计2H交通Takerate将继续承压，下调该业务收入预测，但2H增值需求有望回升，预计截至4Q，Takerate或将回至3.5%以上。
投资建议：我们看好公司高于行业的增速和较强的盈利能力，但考虑到交通Takerate下滑的风险，我们将19/20年收入由76.3/97.7亿下调至73.8/91亿，调整后净利润为15.9/19.9亿，基于DCF重估目标价为17.37港元（原目标价:19.83港元），对应19/20年22/18倍PE，维持“买入”评级。目前公司PE为14.5x。
风险提示：1）行业政策风险；2）自然灾害、政治等突发事件风险；3）行业竞争激烈，标品进入门槛较低；4）公司供应商集中度高。
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