阿里巴巴 ( BABA.N ) 阿里的变量：决战五环外、博弈直播间，给予“买入”评级，目标价218美元
机构：国盛证券
评级：买入
目标价：218美元
阿里巴巴二十年，辽阔布局连接消费互联网和产业互联网。阿里巴巴创业二十载，如今在电商领域笑傲江湖，占国内市场超六成；文娱领域三足鼎立，优酷月活数超四亿；生活服务行业双雄争霸，饿了么和口碑累计月活数超7000万；云计算独占鳌头，IaaS市场份额超四成。依托阿里云、蚂蚁金服、大数据、智联网等，阿里巴巴在数字政务、企业赋能等领域全面发力。
争夺下沉市场，有效打法和多元供应链奠定获客和转化优势。下沉市场网民数超四亿，互联网在五环外大有可为。拼多多把握住了微信渠道红利，通过低价爆款的商品策略、有效的游戏和营销玩法，完成了快速的用户获取和销售转化。阿里巴巴快速反应，发动淘宝特价版、便宜好货区、及整合后的聚划算等全军出击。我们认为，阿里巴巴依赖淘宝客和抖音快手等平台的团战打法更加取巧高效、高端品牌和平价商品俱备的商品生态更加多元；每季度2000多万新增买家超七成来自下沉市场的数据印证了阿里的下沉优势。
布局直播电商，抖音强在内容、快手强在人设、淘宝强在货品。2018年，散打哥和李佳琦的爆红吹响了直播电商的号角，电商和社交平台跑步入场。淘宝直播2018年销售额超千亿，快手老铁异军突起带货数百亿，抖音也成为种草的不二之选。尤其快手，电商规模暴增、自建快手小店，引得淘宝抽取服务费予以制衡，竞争态势微妙。我们认为，抖音强在内容，适合种草；快手强在人设，商业闭环形成、竞争力强劲。但我们最看好淘宝直播：用户交易属性最强；主播体系最强；背靠百万天猫商家和千万淘宝商家，供应链优势最强。预计2019年淘宝直播销售额超1500亿。
阿里商业操作系统，打造产业互联网时代的水电煤。相比于腾讯的工具化打法、美团的服务化打法，阿里巴巴的产业互联网打法更强调服务系统化、运营深入化、行业全面化。2019年伊始，阿里CEO张勇提出“阿里商业操作系统”，依托阿里云、蚂蚁金服、菜鸟等基础设施，以及电商、数字娱乐等营销和数据能力，为零售、餐饮、制造等全行业进行数字化赋能。高鑫零售、星巴克等赋能成功的模式有望被复制到其他更多企业。我们认为，产业互联网时代的阿里巴巴，会更有力地诠释“让天下没有难做的生意”。
分部估值法，首次覆盖给予目标价218美元。我们预计2020/2021/2022财年，公司收入分别增长35%/28%/23%，达5088/6519/8001亿。预计公司non-GAAP净利分别增长16%/24%/25%，达1170/1450/1814亿。基于分部估值法给予阿里巴巴218美元目标价，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
风险提示：居民消费意愿和企业付费意愿不及预期；下沉市场用户增长不及预期；内容和社交平台带货量超预期；新零售、生活服务、文娱、云计算等业务投入带来分部亏损超预期；监管及公司治理风险等。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
