世茂房地产(0813.HK)：业绩稳增，投资积极，销售优异，上调至“买入”评级
机构：东吴证券
评级：买入
事件
世茂房地产发布2019年半年报：公司2019年上半年实现营业收入565.6亿元，同比增长32.9%；实现归母净利润51.05亿元，同比增长19.5%；实现归母核心净利润53.09亿元，同比增长20.6%；每股基本盈利1.552元。
点评
业绩稳步上升。公司2019年上半年实现营业收入565.6亿元，同比增长32.9%；实现归母净利润51.05亿元，同比增长19.5%；实现归母核心净利润53.09亿元，同比增长20.6%。从收入构成看，物业开发、酒店经营、商业运营、物业管理及其他分别占比94.12%、1.76%、1.28%、2.85%。公司上半年实现毛利170.2亿元，同比增长28.9%；销售毛利率30.09%，同比略降0.93个百分点，毛利率保持稳定；销售净利率13.36%，维持行业中上水平。
销售靓眼，投资加码，土储规模可观。公司2019年上半年实现销售金额1003.4亿元，同比增长38.7%；销售面积556万平米，同比增长23.3%，目前已完成全年2100亿元销售计划的47.8%。2019年下半年公司可出售面积1673万平米，我们预计公司将大概率完成全年销售目标。投资方面，公司2019年上半年新增土储项目60幅，计容建面1412万平米，同比增长83%，其中一二线占比57%；总土地款788亿元，其中收购金额占比达60%，总土地款占同期销售金额的79%，平均拿地成本5581元/平米，占销售均价的31%，有效保障未来项目毛利水平。截至19年6月末，公司土地储备布局在101个城市，土储建面达6407万平米，充足的土储给公司未来增长打下基础。
杠杆水平低，融资成本持续下降。截至2019年6月末，公司资产负债率73.25%，净负债率59.6%，连续8年维持在60%以下。上半年公司融资成本仅5.60%，较18年底继续下降20BP。公司借款余额1154.7亿元，其中长短期借款分别占比72%、28%，短期偿债能力强。
投资建议：世茂房地产销售规模持续高增，土地投资积极，城市布局攻守兼备，未来业绩增长可期。我们预计2019-2021年公司EPS分别为3.52、4.57、5.87元人民币，对应PE分别为5.71、4.39、3.42倍，公司基本面持续向好，我们上调评级至“买入”。
风险提示：行业销售波动；政策调整导致经营风险；融资环境变动；企业运营风险；汇率波动风险；棚改货币化不达预期。
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