龙光地产(3380.HK) ：核心净利高增长，新引擎业绩释放可期，维持“增持”评级，目标价15.7港元
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
目标价：15.7港元
2019年上半年核心净利增长59%，预计2019年将超额完成2019年850亿销售目标，将会确保2020年的业绩高增长。
摘要：维持增持评级，维持目标价15.7港元。公司业绩增长符合预期，和年初管理层透露的近500亿元在2019年确认收入符合，预计公司2019年核心净利润约为100.72亿元，同比增长32%。于此同时，深圳先行示范区，大湾区占据政策、地理位置及产业配置等多项优势，经济动能持续提升，公司布局于大湾区的丰富的土地资源将逐步转化为利润释放。
核心盈利持续强劲增长，未来业绩确定性高。2019年上半年，公司实现营业收入270.2亿元，同比增长78.3%；实现核心利润46.7亿元，同比增长59%；毛利率为34.8%（比去年同期下降0.5pct）、核心净利率为17.3%（和2018年持平）。2019年公司权益销售目标850亿元，目前已完成53%的目标。若公司完成2019年销售目标，可锁定80%以上的2020年预期收入,预期2020年及2021年核心盈利将持续增长。
新引擎城市更新带动业绩增长，多元融资渠道确保财务稳健。公司城市更新土储货值高达3,250亿元，平均核心利润率为15%-20%，90%以上位于粤港澳大湾区，上半年城市更新业务贡献核心利润18亿。展望未来，公司预期城市更新业务占当年核心盈利比例约为10%-20%。截止上半年，公司加权融资成本稳定在6.1%，目前持有现金383亿元，净负债率为65.4%;并且公司持续优化财务结构，提前赎回2.6亿美元票据（年息7.7%）。
深圳出台先行示范区，将长期受益于深圳区域的经济增长和政策红利。截止2019年上半年，公司总土储货值为7520亿元，其中粤港澳大湾区土储为6,111亿元、占比81%。深圳土储超过1,800亿元，并连续两年成交套数居深圳第一位，目前在深圳发展的地铁物业项目数量达到13个，先发优势显著。此外，公司在惠州和东莞等临深区域土储货值超过1,500亿元，也将持续受益于深圳购房需求的溢出效应。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
