2019年中期业绩点评 | 周黑鸭(1458.HK)：展现复苏蓝图，维持“买入”评级，目标价5港元
机构：光大证券
评级：买入
目标价：5港元
◆中期业绩与盈利预警一致
公司2019年上半年营收同比增长1.8%至16.2亿元。期内公司客单价同比下降5.6%，客单数同比增加5.9%，反应激烈的行业竞争带来折扣率的提升。由于主要原材料成本上涨，产能扩张折旧及员工成本增加，毛利率同比下降4.0ppt至55.9%。公司上半年网络的扩张及员工薪金的增加令销售费用率同比提升2.9ppt至32.9%，同时产能的扩张令管理费用率提同比提升0.8ppt至6.2%。令公司净利润同比下降32.4%至2.24亿元，净利率同比下降7.0ppt至13.8%。截止2019年6月末，公司门店数量达1255家。
◆延续扩张情势
1）6月末公司门店网络覆盖96个城市。华南地区增长明显，门店数量净增加19家，区域收入同比增长28.8%。同时西北、西南等外埠市场开始贡献收入增量。
2）6月广东东莞新加工工厂投产，并在江苏和四川建设新厂，完善5大产区布局。3）期内公司新兴渠道拓展成绩突出，电商业务同比增长9.3%，外卖业务同比增长47.5%。
◆公司呈现清晰复苏路径
公司8月27日公告，张宇晨先生接替周富裕先生成为公司行政总裁，张总具备20年消费品领域运营管理经验，有助于公司应对复苏挑战。
1）商业模式方面将新增特许经营体系，与原有直营体系结合渗透市场；
2）突破便利店渠道以增加公司渠道网络的多元性，选择优质渠道伙伴；
3）搭建新品管理体系，建设持续产品创新能力；4）优化整合营销及推广资源；
5）发展以绩效为导向的人才激励计划，将覆盖核心高管及一线团队。管理层规划未来1-2年将着力打造特许经营模式，以期在未来能够形成复制能力。
◆维持“买入”评级，下调目标价至5.00港元
考虑到公司店效下滑及经营成本上升，新建产能仍处于爬坡期，我们下调2019-2021年EPS预测至0.19/0.21/0.22元。下调基于DCF目标价至5.00港元（g=2.0%,WACC=9.42%），对应2019年22xPE。我们看好公司未来的复苏前景，维持“买入”评级。
◆风险提示：新品拓展不力；食品安全事件；市场渗透不及预期。
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