百度(BIDU.US)：19Q2收入利润环比大幅上升，但预计全年仍受宏观经济压制影响，维持“买入”评级
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
投资要点
公司19Q2收入环比实现双位数增长，但预计下半年仅能实现个位数增长。
1）百度19Q2实现收入263亿元（YoY+1%，若不考虑2018剥离业务的影响，19Q2收入YoY+6%）；剔除爱奇艺影响，百度核心业务19Q2实现收入195亿元（YoY-2%，QoQ+12%，不考虑2018剥离业务影响的YoY为+3%）；其中剔除爱奇艺广告的网络营销收入为192亿元（YoY-8.7%）；
2）我们认为公司广告收入增长放缓的原因并没有发生明显改变：a）宏观经济下行、特别是互联网公司增长放缓，导致广告投入减少；b）移动互联网变现变难的情况下，各APP增加广告位，竞争激烈导致广告单价下降。这两点影响因素在2019下半年仍将持续。公司预计19Q3收入为269-285亿元（YoY-5%至+1%）。
因春晚赞助活动仅影响Q1，Q2公司环比费用减少、营业利润率上升。19Q2公司Non-GAAP营业利润为19.55亿元（YoY-70%），Non-GAAP归母净利润为36.35亿元（YoY-53%，QoQ+276%），环比大幅上升。净利润环比大幅上升的原因是公司费用的降低：19Q1公司投入大额营销费用用于春晚宣传，这一影响在Q2消失，因此公司管理&一般费用率（GAAP）环比下降5.2pct至19.9%（同比仍上升2.6pct），因此Non-GAAP营业利润率环比上升5.8pct至7.4%，Non-GAAP净利率环比上升9.8pct至13.8%。
投资建议：搜索行业增长趋缓，但看好公司AI前景，维持“买入”评级。我们预计公司2019至2021年公司收入分别为1062/1082/1149亿元，Non-GAAP归母净利润分别为124/132/175亿元，Non-GAAPEPS分别为35/38/50元，由于宏观经济对公司收入利润的影响短期无法消除，我们下调公司目标价13.3%至130美元，对应2019至2021年non-GAAPEPS的PE分别为26/24/18倍，维持“买入”评级。
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