小牛电动 ( NIU.US)：规模效应显现，盈利能力快速提升，维持“买入”评级
机构：国盛证券
评级：买入
公司发布2019半年报。2019年上半年公司实现收入8.86亿元（+59%），实现净利润0.63亿元（+120%）；其中二季度公司实现收入5.3亿元（+38%），实现净利润0.51亿元，去年同期净利润为-2.53亿元。收入规模快速增长，龙头地位进一步巩固。公司上半年共销售电动两轮车16.6万辆，同比增长32.4%，其中Q1销售6.6万辆，Q2销售9.9万辆。同时公司中高端车型N和M系列车型销售占比提升，使得公司单车价值Q1和Q2分别提升17%和21.3%。公司上半年海外收入占比提升明显，相对于2018年同期提升10.8pct，达到23.7%，部件及服务收入占比达到13.9%，相比较同期提升6.2pct，为公司贡献新的增长点。
规模效应集中显现，进入业绩收获期。公司上半年实现毛利率22.7%，同比提升8.4pct，提升幅度明显。一方面是上游原材料成本降低所致，另一方面公司销售结构变化使得单车平均售价提升显著，同时公司毛利率占比较高的配件及服务业务占比持续提升。公司上半年期间费用率为16.7%，相比较去年同期大幅降低47pct，其中销售/研发/管理费用率分别为8.7%（-3.9pct）/3.5%（-6.5pct）/4.5%（-37.3pct）。一方面是随着公司营收规模的提升，公司的费用进一步被摊薄，另一方面是公司去年Q2一次性的1.8亿元股权激励费用及2230万元的火灾损失在今年影响消除。
渠道快速建设，海外市场进展顺利。公司截止到二季度末在国内共开设特许经营店1005家，较Q1的881家增加124家，同时海外零售终端达到26家。公司预计在今年新开设500家门店，达到1250家左右，市场占有率进一步得到提升。海外市场前景广阔，公司持续布局欧洲市场，高端化路线将显著抬升ASP，二季度公司海外销量同比增长1倍多，为公司持续贡献增量。盈利预测与投资建议。我们看好公司在锂电自行车领域的护城河优势，受益政策催化下快速提升的市场空间。考虑公司快速提升的盈利能力，我们上调2019-2021年净利润1.6亿元/2.98亿元/4.51亿元人民币，对应PE23.5/12.6/8.3倍，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：行业竞争加剧导致单车价值下滑；海外市场存在一定的不确定性；新国标政策执行力度或不及预期。
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