中国海外发展(0688.HK)：销售快速增长，财务实力雄厚
机构：兴业证券
投资要点
我们的观点：公司上半年销售快速增长，下半年推货更加充足，全年销售增速预计将超过30%。公司上半年谨慎补充土储，下半年预计仍以稳为原则适度补仓。上半年新增土储分布城市能级进一步上升，一线城市土地款占比达到57%，且获取项目都位于城市市区更为核心的地段。公司核心净利润率超过20%，为行业最高水平之一，业绩释放稳健，未来派息比率有望进一步增长。公司的当前股价对应2018年PE为7倍，股息收益率为3.6%，推荐投资者积极关注。
业绩稳健，利润率继续领跑：2019年上半年公司实现营业收入933.8亿元港币（下同），同比增长5.4%；毛利润为325.8亿元，同比增长2.8%，毛利率为34.9%，同比下降0.9个百分点；股东应占核心净利润为210亿元，同比增长9.5%，核心净利率为22.5%，同比增长0.9个百分点。公司中期每股派息为45港仙，同比增长12.5%，派息总额为49.3亿港元，占核心净利润的比例为23.5%。公司的中期业绩符合预期。
合约销售快速增长：2019年上半年公司的销售金额和销售面积（包含中海宏洋）分别为1942亿港元和922万平米，分别同比增长28.7%和8.9%。公司近两年销售快速增长，对于全年3500亿目标上半年销售完成度达到55%。公司下半年准备了5000亿可售货值，按照42%去化水平，全年销售金额将超过4000亿港元。上半年销售均价为21066港元/平米，同比增长18.3%。销售金额按区域分布，华南区域、华东区域、华北区域、北方区域、西部区域和港澳分别占比19.5%、20.9%、27.2%、15.8%、10.3%、6.3%。
重点布局一二线：上半年公司审慎补充土储，新增土储面积仅为销售面积的50%。上半年新增了24幅土地，100%位于一二线及强三线城市，由于城市能级高导致土地成本为12371港元/平米。新增土储464万平米，权益面积为442万平米，权益比例约85%，新增土地总价为752亿港元。截至2019年6月，公司的总土地储备面积（不含中海宏洋）为6789万平米，权益比例达到92%。按区域划分，北方地区、西部地区、华东地区、华北地区、华南区域和港澳地区的土地储备占比分别为 23.0%、19.3%、10.1%、26.4%、20.5%、0.7%。
风险提示：宏观经济增长放缓、行业限制政策加严、流动性收紧、公司销售不及预期、人民币贬值。
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