中国太保(2601.HK)：寿险新单逐季改善，净利润大幅提升，维持“审慎增持”评级，目标价40.31港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：审慎增持
目标价40.31港元
投资要点
我们的观点：中国太保在未来的发展中注重打造“数字化”平台，加速“太保转型2.0”建设，公司寿险业务结构有望持续优化，产险业务盈利性有望持续提升。我们维持公司“审慎增持”评级，维持公司目标价40.31港元。2019-2021年，中国太保目标价对应的集团每股内含价值分别为0.94、0.80及0.69倍，建议投资者关注。
2019H1公司净利润大幅增长：2019H1，公司营业收入同比增长7.7%；归属公司股东净利润同比增长96.1%。2019H1，太保寿险保险业务收入同比增长5.6%；太保产险保险业务收入同比增长12.5%。其中，车险业务收入461亿元，同比增长5.2%；非车险业务收入221亿元，同比增长31.4%。
公司价值提升，偿付能力充足：2019H1，公司寿险的综合偿付能力为257%；产险的综合偿付能力为286%；集团偿付能力充足率为296%，均满足监管要求。2019H1，公司个人寿险客户13个月保单继续率为91.7%；25个月保单继续率为90.5%。截至2019年6月30日，公司总内涵价值达到3,651亿元，较2018年末增长8.6%。2019H1，公司寿险新业务价值率为39.0%，较2018年末下降4.7个百分点。公司寿险2019H1一年新业务价值为149.3亿元，同比下降8.4%。
投资规模扩大，投资收益率略升：截止至2019年6月30日，中国太保集团投资资产规模达到1.4万亿元，同比增长15.2%。从投资结构方面，2019H1公司权益类投资较上年末上升1.2个百分点；固定收益类及现金等价物类投资较上年末下降0.5及0.6个百分点。2019H1，公司总投资收益率为4.8%，同比上升0.2个百分点；净投资收益率为4.6%，同比降低0.3个百分点。
风险提示：资本市场波动，保费增速不达预期，公司经营风险，保险行业政策改变
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