龙湖集团(0960.HK)：前瞻布局，从容应对，维持“买入”评级，目标价33.8港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：33.8港元
投资要点
维持“买入”评级，目标价33.8港元：公司能够从容应对复杂的外部环境在于前瞻的布局和坚定的执行力，包括城市的选择、拿地的时机、开发+投资物业的业务结构、严格的财务纪律等。我们预计公司2019/2020年营业收入为1560/2025亿元，分别同比增长34.7%和29.8%，核心净利润为163.2和204.2亿元，分别同比增长27%和25.1%。公司兼具较高的成长性和稳健的财务，我们维持“买入”评级，目标价33.8港元，较现价有21%的升幅，相当于2019/2020年核心净利润的10/8倍PE。公司派息率达到45%，按照当前股价，股息收益率达到4%。
核心净利润同比增长26%，业绩符合预期：2019年中期公司营业收入为385.7亿元人民币（下同），同比增长42%；毛利润125.8亿元，同比增长25%；核心净利润为47亿元，同比增26%；毛利率和核心净利率分别为32.6%和12.2%，仍然处于行业较高水平。公司中期派息32分，同比增长20%，公司全年派息率保持45%。公司的中期业绩符合预期。
销售规模继续保持行业前列：2019年1-6月份公司合同销售金额和面积分别为1056亿元和650万平米，分别同比增长8.8%和3.5%。公司的销售贡献来自42个城市，但前十大城市合计销售金额的占比达到61%。公司可售货值丰富，且超过90%位于一、二线及强三线城市，公司的销售规模继续保持行业前列。
持续布局深耕核心一、二线城市：2019年上半年土地市场表现审慎但仍然抓住窗口期补充优质土储，新获取50个新项目，总GFA为924万平米，权益占比72.6%，权益土地款为521亿元。公司的城市布局逐步完善，目前已经进入49个城市，基本以一、二线和周边城市为主。截至2019年中期，公司的土地储备达到7093万平米，平均地价占销售均价的比例为34.7%，其中79%位于一、二线城市，16%位于强三线城市。
风险提示：宏观经济增长放缓、行业调控政策加严、流动性收紧、商品房销售不及预期、人民币贬值。
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