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招金矿业(1818.HK):股价弹性大,下半年业绩有望改善,维持“买入”评级,目标价11.51港元
格隆汇 08-29 14:58

机构:兴业证券

评级:买入

目标价:11.51港元

投资要点

公司发布2019年中期业绩:收入28.18亿元人民币(单位下同),同比减少约1.76%。净利润约为2.56亿元,同比减少约33.85%。母公司股东应占溢利约为2.39亿元,同比减少约20.81%。每股基本及摊薄盈利0.07元。

上半年主要受内蒙古及甘肃区域停产、限产的政策影响,部分企业产量没有释放,公司自产金7.63t,同比下滑12.67%。买断及副产金增加至2.49t,合计矿产金产量10.13t,同比略增0.36%。管理层对19年自产金产量指引维持59.49万盎司不变(19.13t),下半年将加快开采节奏。

黄金开采量下降导致单位黄金成本上升。期间黄金现金生产成本略有下降(本期96.17元/g,18年97.56元/g),开采量受限导致摊销到每单位的矿山折旧/摊销及复垦等固定成本大幅增加,综合成本上升了5.4元至160.17元/g。海域高品位矿山投产后,将带动公司开采成本下降。

公司在国内地产勘探和增加黄金储备方面积极,上半年新增金属量11.01t,储量升级金金属量11.85t。海域金矿投产后将成为公司未来增长引擎,同时公司积极寻求海外市场的并购机会。

行业观点:本轮黄金“王者归来”是市场对大国博弈、全球经济、政治及贸易风险各种不确定的担忧,而黄金是“确定性”赢家,黄金进入战略性机遇期。

盈利预测及评级:我们对金价保持乐观,公司作为纯正的黄金矿业公司,弹性十足,金价1%的波动对应EPS及股价4%-5%的弹性。预计公司2019-2021归母净利润分别为8.35亿元/8.75亿元/9.05亿元。目标价11.51港元,对应2019年38倍PE,维持“买入”评级。

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