信达生物-B(1801.HK)：信迪利单抗快速放量，研发管线稳步推进
机构：国金证券
事件
28日，公司发布半年报，收入约3.46亿元，毛利率88.1%，研发投入约6.7亿元，利润亏损约6.68亿元。整体业绩符合预期，达伯舒快速放量。
点评
信迪利单抗（PD-1）销售快速放量，其潜在临床已超20项。公司核心重磅品种信迪利单抗（PD-1）去年12月份获批上市，于今年3月9日正式开始销售，上半年销售额约3.32亿元人民币，目前已获批适应症为经典性霍奇金淋巴瘤。信迪利单抗在研临床项目已超20项，包括处于三期临床的肺癌、食管癌、肝癌、胃癌等适应症，以及处于早期阶段的NK/T淋巴瘤、黑色素瘤、神经内分泌瘤等适应症。
IBI301、IBI305及IBI303类似物进展顺利，均有望今明年陆续上市。公司临床进展仅次于达伯舒的是三个生物类似物，分别是CD20、VEGF、TNF-α，分别于19年6月、19年1月、18年12月申报NDA，并分别于19年8月、19年4月、19年3月被纳入优先审评，有望今明两年陆续上市。公司产品线梯队分明，核心品种PD1之后仍有三个重磅品种紧随其后，预计明年开始贡献业绩.
在研管线丰富，对外合作积极，储备双抗及 CART等未来品种。公司拥有丰富在研管线，除以上处于临床后期重磅靶点，还有早期的创新大分子CTLA-4、RANKL、OX40、PCSK9、CD47等创新靶点，同时公司还储备了围绕PD-1/PD-L1开展的双特异性抗体品种，目前处于临床早期阶段，以及对外合作的CART和小分子项目（来自Incyte的FGFR、PI3K和JAK1）。公司与和记黄埔合作，开展PD-1+VEGF（信迪利单抗+呋喹替尼）的联合用药方案。公司在研管线丰富，梯队完整，有较多联合用药（Combo）选择，又有未来双抗、小分析、CART项目储备，未来可期。
盈利预测与估值：
根据公司在研管线核心品种的拆分与估值，及已上市品种的拆分和估值，我们预计公司在仅考虑单药治疗的情况下，合理估值应为248亿人民币。未来考虑联合用药方案及潜在早期临床品种，估值预计可达338亿人民币。预计2019-2021三年收入额约7.2/16.0/34.0亿元人民币。
风险提示：
国内外早期在研进展存在风险；核心品种上市后销售竞争存在风险；管理层变动存在不确定性，初创型创新药公司研发和销售可能存在人员变动。
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