2019年中报点评 | 北京汽车(1958.HK):关注奔驰更多车型投放,首次覆盖给予“推荐”评级
机构:东兴证券
评级:推荐
报告摘要:
北京汽车2019年上半年营收878亿元,同比增长14%;归母扣非净利润20.9亿元,同比大幅下滑26%。公司2019年上半年毛利率为23.48%,同比大幅下滑3.1%;净利率为8.24%,同比大跌2.22%。奔驰销量继续强势增长,自主品牌汰弱扶强、止跌回升。北京奔驰上半年销量达到28.2万辆,同比逆市增长11.9%。奔驰销量的增长主要来自于新投放的A级轿车,以及C级轿车和GLC系列SUV。北京品牌汽车销量止跌回升,已经停产的“威旺”品牌正在推进出售给控股股东的工作。
奔驰品牌新车型投产导致毛利率降低。北京奔驰近年在A级车(A级/GLA)加大了投入,对毛利率造成了一定程度的影响。定位较低的A级车自身毛利率水平就较低,同时在绝对销量不大的情况下,分摊的固定成本较高。北京现代拖累盈利,但下半年或触底反弹。上半年北京现代随着国六升级进行了主动去库存,致使盈利能力大幅下挫。目前北京现代的终端销量已经开始反弹,下半年到2020年随着补库存的进行,以及新款索纳塔和多种新能源车的推出,我们认为公司的亏损将明显缓解。
未来1-3年随着GLB和B级车的国产以及新能源车型的不断导入,我们预计奔驰品牌的强周期将持续。公司产品线不断丰富,将逐渐缓解当前入门车型固定成本高、毛利率较低的问题。
盈利预测:预计公司2019/2020/2021年营收分别为1,570/1,769/1,941亿元,归母净利润分别为39.3/39.28/45.81亿元,EPS分别为0.66/0.64/0.74元,分别同比增长-0.4%/-0.05%/16.63%,对应PE为9.1/9.1/7.8x。首次覆盖,给予“推荐”评级。
风险提示:乘用车消费不及预期;原材料价格大幅上涨。

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