《大行报告》花旗升中国金茂(00817.HK)目标价至6.88元 评级「买入」
花旗发表的报告指,中国金茂(00817.HK)在城市运营项目上有独特优势,上半年相关项目贡献新增土储的45%,相信於2020年或以後对销售及盈利贡献将显着提升。公司上半年新增5个城市运营项目,令项目总数增至15个,潜在可售货值达1万亿元人民币,相信有助支撑公司的可持续增长,另外城市运营项目毛利率大约在35%以上,故相信亦能维持利润表现。
另外该行指出公司混改已於7月完成,相估有助金茂释放增长潜力,现时公司未入帐销售达1,740亿元人民币,估计是今年预测物业销售收入的3倍,该行估计公司2019及2020年盈利将分别有30%及35%的增长,相信随着其盈利弹性增加,租金收入料到2020年将增至40亿元人民币,加上估值吸引,估计将引来进一步重估,重申「买入」评级,目标价由6.68元升至6.88元。
该行引述管理层指出,受限价政策影响上半年销售的毛利率大约为25%,但该行相信对盈利影响仍然可控,一来公司土地成本占比已降至21%,而毛利率较高的城市运营项目贡献提升,料影响将在2020年开始显现,另外公司未入帐销售金额庞大亦料可带动收入增长、抵销利润下降的影响。
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