新华保险（601336.SH）1H19业绩点评：代理人恢复增长，新业务价值率下滑
作者：申万宏源非银组
来源：大金融研究
本期投资提示
事件：新华保险披露2019年半年报，公司实现归母净利润105.5亿元，同比增长81.8%；扣非归母净利润86.9亿元，同比增长49.1%。公司内含价值达1914.0亿元，较去年末增长10.5%；剩余边际为2083.1亿元，较去年末增长6.5%。
健康险保费同比增长25.9%，新业务价值率下滑。1H19公司长期险首年保费同比增长0.9%至117.1亿元，其中期交保费同比增长1.1%；续期保费占总保费比例小幅提升0.4 pct.达78.9%。健康险同比增长25.9%，其中长期险首年保费达65.2亿元，同比增长3.4%；短期险保费同比增长37.7%达26.0亿元。产品结构中计算占整体长期险首年保费比例，健康险长期险首年保费占比为55.7%，同比提升1.4 pct.；十年期及以上期交保费占比为51.2%，同比下滑9.7 pct.。1H19公司实现NBV为58.9亿元，同比下滑8.7%，其中首年保费同比增长21.5%达155.4亿元，新业务价值率由去年同期50.4%下滑至37.9%。
代理人规模创历史新高。1H19个险规模人力达38.6万人，同比增长15.5%，较18年末代理人37.0万人增员1.6万人。月均合格人力达14.0万人，同比增长4.9%，占月均规模人力的比例同比下滑2.9 pct.至38.8%，受制于首年保费增速下行，代理人月均人均综合产能4472元，同比下滑13.8%。公司二季度将部分精力转移于增员，业务营销开展增速有所放缓，预期下半年在人员到位维持稳定情况下，保障型产品将持续推进、驱动新业务价值增长。
投资收益率保持稳健，非标资产占比下降。1H19公司债权资产占比为67.4%，较上年末上升1.7 pct.；其中债券及债务占比达43.7%，较上年末增加4.4 pct.。股权资产占比15.8%，较上年末下降0.8 pct.；其中基金占比下降0.9 pct.，股票占比提升0.2 pct.。1H19非标资产达2281.7亿元、占比29.5%，较上年末减少2.8 pct.；存量非标资产中AAA级占比达92.9%，信用风险较低、具备安全边际。公司实现净投资收益率5.0%，同比持平；总投资收益率4.7%，小幅下滑0.1 pct.。受益于资本市场改善，其他综合收益由去年同期-27.9亿元转正为0.9亿元，公允价值变动损益由去年同期-2亿元转正至5.5亿元。
投资建议：公司健康险保持高速增长，维持买入评级。公司大健康险战略仍在推进，代理人规模创历史新高，预期下半年人力恢复下营销策略跟进、价值率下滑可有所缓解。基于公司投资收益略低于预期、下调公司盈利预测，预测2019-21年EPS为4.46/4.62/5.71元（原预测2019-21年EPS为4.60/5.37/6.39元/股），当前对应19年PEV仅为0.78倍，维持买入评级。
风险提示：保障类产品销量不及预期，长端利率快速下行，资本市场大幅波动。
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