中国新华教育(2779.HK)：1H19调整后净利同增12%，并购落地未来发展值得期待，维持“买入”评级
机构：国金证券
评级：买入
目标价：4.0港元
业绩点评
中国新华教育1H19实现营收2.28亿元/+13.6%YOY，包含其他收益的总收益为2.69亿元/+13.4%YOY，净利润1.52亿元/+10.8%YOY，调整汇兑损益和股权开支后净利润1.54亿元/+12.2%YOY。公司1H19毛利率64.3%/-1.5pct，主要由于加强师资力量和薪酬制度建设，并加大了教学活动的资金投入；销售费用率1.6%/+0.7pct；管理费用率13.9%/持平；调整其他收益后净利率48.6%/-1.5pct。
公司1H19其他收益0.42亿元/+12.4%YOY。其他收益中租金及物业管理收益和服务收益，合计约0.21亿元/+3.0%YOY，占其他收益49%；利息收益0.19亿元/+564.5%YOY，占其他收益44%；公司自2018年开始运营临床医学院，于2018年9月实现首届学生入学，本期内营运亏损662.2万元（去年同期无），预计未来随着学生规模的扩大，盈利状况会得到改善。
内生方面——公司旗下四所学校经营稳步发展，两所学校上调学费仅需备案即可。
①公司旗下运营四所学校，新华学院（本科）/新华学校（中职）/临床医学院（本科）/红山学院（本科），截止20190630，四所学校在校生人数分别为30075/5255/575/8796人，共计4.47万人/+28.1%YOY。
②新华学院及新华学校不再需要向主管政府部门申请批准上调学费，仅须向有关部门备案即可上调学费，学费调整更加灵活。
③临床医学院计划建设新校区，校园一期工程预计将于2020年完工并投入使用，届时可容纳5,000名学生，集团正积极推动临床医学院转设工作。
外延方面——正值职教&民办高校发展的红利期，在手现金充足，无银行借款，扩张可期。截止20190630公司账上现金及其等价物达11.7亿元，无银行借款，资金充裕，扩张潜力较强。2019年2月，公司确认收购红山学院成功中标。2019年7月，红山学院已与南京市高淳区人民政府订立协议，拟收购约950亩土地建设开发新校区。同月，公司公告拟收购昆明医科大学海源学院（本科）及昆明市卫生学校（中职）60%举办者权益，两校在校生合计超过1.8万人，有望巩固医科类办学地位，形成协同效应。
投资建议：不考虑红山及云南学校，我们预测公司19/20年归母净利为2.82/3.34亿元，对应PE为14/12x。目标价4.0港元，维持买入评级。
风险提示：送审稿最终版尚未发布；学额增长空间有限；收购尚未完成
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