正荣地产（6158.HK）业绩稳健杠杆可控投资回归一二线维持“增持”评级
机构：东吴证券
评级：增持
事件
正荣地产发布2019年半年度报告：2019年上半年公司实现营业收入136.5亿元，同比增长11%；归母净利润9.3亿元，同比增长11%；归母核心净利润9.05亿元，同比增长21.3%；基本每股收益0.23元。
点评
业绩增长较为稳健。2019年上半年公司实现营业收入136.5亿元，同比增长11%；实现归母净利润9.3亿元，同比增长11%；业绩增长稳健，毛利率为20.3%，同比下降1.7个百分点；净利率为8.6%，同比提升0.9个百分点。2019年上半年公司实现销售额586亿元，同比增长1%；销售面积381万平米，同比增长13%。从区域布局看，公司在长三角、海峡西岸、中部、环渤海、西部销售金额占比分别为55.7%、17.9%、11.6%、10.9%、3.9%；从城市能级看，在一线、二线、三线城市占比分别为5.5%、71.5%、23%。2019年公司提出全年销售计划1300亿元，1-7月已实现全年销售计划的53%。
拿地继续集中一二线，土地储备规模稳步上升。2019年上半年，公司新增土地22幅，总建筑面积290万平米，其中超90%位于强二线城市，拿地金额达181.69亿元，占当期销售金额的31%，平均拿地成本6311元/平米。公司土储丰富，目前公司布局全国29个城市，总土储建面达2634万平米，从区域分布看，公司在长三角、海西、中部、西部、环渤海、珠三角土储面积占比分别为38.2%、27.9%、14.9%、5.1%、12.4%、1.5%；土储总货值达4500亿元，每平米土地成本仅4624元，超70%土储位于一二线城市。?控杠杆成果显著，融资成本有所回落。截至2019年上半年，公司资产负债率81.3%，同比下降5.3个百分点；净负债率为70.8%，同比下降101个百分点，较2018年末下降3.2个百分点。公司融资结构持续优化，总债务规模525.29亿元，其中境内银行借款、境内其他借款、公司债、境外优先票据分别占比40%、29%、7%、24%；上半年加权融资成本7.6%，较2018年全年下降0.2个百分点。
投资建议：销售顺利破千亿规模，“1+6+X”完成全国化布局战略。公司作为销售增速较快的成长性房企，杠杆得到有效控制，融资成本持续走低。注重收益、风险可控，预计2019-2021年公司EPS分别为0.67、0.87、1.09元人民币，对应PE分别为6.46、5.02、3.99倍。维持“增持”评级。
风险提示：行业销售波动；政策调整导致经营风险（棚改、调控、税收政策等）；融资环境变动（按揭、开发贷、利率调整等）；企业运营风险（人员变动、施工、拿地等）；汇率波动风险。
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