华晨中国(1114.HK)宝马利润率环比回升超预期本部业务持续亏损维持“买入”评级目标价9.0港元
机构：招商证券
评级：买入
目标价：9港元
上半年净利润同比下降9.4%，华晨宝马投资收益同比下降3.4%，但宝马净利润率环比回升幅度超预期，目前终端销售定价趋稳
■本部业务持续亏损，暂时未见转机
■维持买入评级及目标价9.0港元（6.2xFY19EP/E）
宝马利润率环比回升，本部业务难扭亏上半年净利润同比下降9.4%至32.3亿元人民币，若剔除特别派息一次性预扣税2亿元人民币影响，同比降3.8%。宝马合资公司（持股50%）投资收益同比下降3.4%至35.5亿元人民币，其净利率9%同比下降2.7ppt，但环比回升2.2ppt好于预期。宝马销量同比增长25.9%至26.4万辆，ASP同比持平，盈利未能同步增长原因：
1）对宝马经销商较大补贴保障销量，以及3系换代降价清库存；
2）人民币兑欧元走弱，华晨宝马远期外汇对冲损失。
本部面包车业务亏损扩大：1）收入/毛利（均不含华晨宝马）同比下滑16.7%/35.4%；2）销售/管理/财务费率合计同比提升4.3ppt至26.9%。
管理层对宝马及豪华车市场展望乐观，终端定价趋稳
管理层维持宝马销量增长15%的指引，前7月已完成目标销量约60%，预计实现目标难度不大。管理层认为中国豪华车市场上半年增长约9%，全年估计10%以上，远高于整体汽车行业（我们预计同比下降5%以上），未来2-3年豪华车市场仍有很大的增长空间。我们渠道调研显示，宝马的折扣率从上半年的低双位数逐步收窄到目前的高单位数，主要得益于库存控制更加合理，以及宝马3系老款清库存完成，新3系提高整体终端价格的稳定性。我们估计宝马下半年不会再出现对经销商高额补贴的情况，去年下半年终端价格因关税预期下调受冲击，宝马额外向经销商增加补贴。
维持买入评级及目标价9.0港元
上调2019-21E宝马合营公司净利润预测2%/1%/2%反映上半年宝马利润率恢复好于预期。对本部面包车业务盈利做更保守预期，因其金杯品牌产品线老化，未来导入雷诺产品底盘也仍需较长调整周期，目前仍未见转机。综合两方面因素，对公司2019-21E净利润预测维持大致不变。维持买入评级及目标价9.0港元，相当于6.2xFY19EP/E（估值倍数维持）。考虑到未来公司持有宝马股权减少后，盈利稳定性降低，给予估值相对当前汽车制造商行业平均（7.6x）折让近20%，相对公司历史平均（11.3x）折让45%。
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