中国建筑国际(3311.HK)业务增长符合预期但汇率将影响报表利润维持“买入”评级目标价10.22港元
机构：招商证券
评级：买入
目标价：10.22港元
■公司2019年上半年收入同比增加1.6%，净利润同比增长13.5%，完成我们全年盈利预测的53%，符合预期
■香港业务上半年收入和订单分别同比提升33.8%/33.9%，短期无虞
■由于公司报表货币为港币，受汇率影响我们下调了公司未来国内业务收入，同时滚动基期至2020年，综合各方面因素后上调目标价4.4%至10.22港元，维持买入评级
收入及盈利情况表现稳健
公司2019年上半年录得收入275亿港元，其中国内、香港、澳门和中建兴业业务占比分别为48.9%/35.7%/9.6%/5.8%。其中香港业务收入大幅提升33.8%，与2018年香港订单大幅增长表现一致，毛利率交付提升0.3个百分点。上半年国内基建业务收入同比下降4.5%，公司国内业务仍处于转型期，公司更关注现金的使用效率而不仅仅追求规模。在收入略有下降的情况下，公司国内基建业务的毛利率提升3.4个百分点，同时公司国内业务经营性现金流为净流出15亿港元，去年同期为净流出57亿港元，国内业务质量明显改善。公司澳门业务收入下降35%，毛利率下滑5.7个百分点至9%；收入和毛利率下降主要是由于2018年大项目收尾导致的业务波动，9%的毛利率是长期正常水平。但由于公司澳门更多参与投资类项目，由于投资收益增长，公司澳门业务净利润同比增长61%。公司管理层亦预计全年可以实现20%的利润增长目标。
展望整体乐观，但香港业务和汇率是两个不确定性因素
公司上半年新签订单584.1亿港元，同比下滑9.4%，下滑主要原因是公司转型后对国内业务新订单更为审慎。国内新订单为246亿港元，同比下滑38%，但新订单覆盖倍数仍为1.8倍，国内业务未完成合同总额同比亦持平，所以我们并不担心订单下滑对收入的影响，相反我们认为公司国内业务主要集中在城市建设方面，政府的扶持力度最大，项目的推进速度预计加快。公司香港业务新订单同比增加34%，公司亦认为由于香港业务中有较多私人业务，对香港业务影响有限。同时公司报表货币为港币，现金流量表数据基本以月度折算为主，所以近期汇率波动对上半年业绩影响不大，但我们认为对下半年及之后的报表利润有直接影响。
受汇率影响下调盈利预测，仍维持买入评级
受汇率影响我们下调公司2019-21年国内业务收入3.0%/5.7%/5.1%，对应下调公司2019-21年净利润预测2.8%/4.8%/5.3%。我们认为贸易战和香港业务风险进一步扩大，我们下调公司目标价市盈率乘数10%至8.2倍，并同时调整基期至2020年，综合上述因素，我们上调公司目标价4.4%至10.22港元，维持买入评级。
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