新奥能源(2688.HK)天然气销售稳步增长接驳业务优于预期维持“买入”评级目标价91.20港元
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
目标价：91.20港元
核心观点：
公司2019年上半年核心净利润基本符合预期
公司披露2019年上半年业绩公告，2019年上半年公司实现营业收入人民币353.44亿元，同比增长33.2%；实现毛利人民币55.98亿元，同比增长20.1%；实现归母净利润33.62亿元，同比大幅增长88.7%；实现核心净利润27.34亿元，同比增长14.40%，基本符合我们的预期。
销气量稳步增长，毛差略有降低2019年上半年，公司零售天然气销售量达到97.69亿立方米，同比增长15.1%。2019年上半年公司平均售气毛差为人民币0.58元/立方米，同比下降0.04元/立方米，符合我们的预期。我们预计2019-2021年公司零售天然气销气量分别为199.51/227.04/256.62亿立方米，同比增长14.9%/13.8%/13.0%,售气毛差为人民币0.60/0.59/0.59元/立方米。
接驳业务优于预期，住宅接驳费略有下降
2019年上半年，2019年上半年公司实现工程安装（燃气接驳）收入人民币36.26亿元，同比增加29.3%，接驳业务毛利率为52.98%，同比下降9.8pp。2019年上半年，公司新增住宅用户128.7万户，同比增长19.4%，高于我们的预期；新增工商业用户达到12,110户，同比增长1,346户。我们预计未来接驳户数稳健增长，公司2019-2021年新增住宅用户预计为253.2/273.5/289.9万户，同比增长10%/8%/6%。
综合能源业务收入快速增长
2019年上半年，公司综合能源销售与服务业务实现收入人民币10.19亿元，同比大增176.2%；实现毛利人民币2.06亿元，同比大幅增加635.7%，综合能源销售量达19.52亿千瓦时，同比大幅增长92.1%。我们预计未来该板块将成为公司新的业绩增长点，2019-2021年公司综合能源业务将会快速发展，业务收入分别为人民币40.2/100.5/190.95亿元，增速可达300%/150%/90%；
盈利预测与投资评级
2019年8月23日，新奥能源（02688.HK）收盘价为87.60港元，我们预测公司2019-2021年核心EPS分别为人民币4.56/5.35/6.43元。我们认为，公司为港股燃气龙头企业，上游气源具有优势，下游城燃销气量有望保持增长，综合能源业务预计为未来业绩增长点，由于公司业绩增长点较多，以及稳定增长的运营现金流较为亮眼，我们基于2019年18倍PE，给予合理价值为91.20港元/股，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示
“煤改气”政策实施不及预期，销气毛差降幅超过预期，综合能源项目不及预期，人民币兑港币汇率贬值超预期。
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