美团点评-W(3690.HK)毛利率改善显著单季度成功扭亏维持“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点：
业绩概况：19Q2实现营业收入227.03亿元，同比增长50.62%，环比增长18.41%；平台整体实现毛利润79.41亿元，同比增长179.5%，总体毛利率34.98%（环比增加8.54pct，同比增加16.13pct）。营业费用率整体环比减少3.6pct。GAAP归母净利润8.76亿元，实现扭亏。
外卖市占率稳中有升，配送成本下降带动毛利大幅提升。19Q2餐饮外卖交易额同增36.5%至931亿元，市占率提升至65%（Trustdata），在补贴率保持平稳情况下，与竞对差距逐渐拉大，生态效率得到全面应证。Q2货币化率13.8%，同比提升0.74pct，盈利模式中佣金率保持平稳，广告收入/GTV继续提升至1.2%。餐饮外卖实现营业收入128.45亿元（QoQ+20.0%，YOY+44.2%），单均配送成本改善明显驱动毛利率环比大幅改善7.9pct至22.3%。随着外卖旺季到来以及气候变化因素，下半年骑手成本将有所回升，但订单密度提升仍将同比改善外卖成本结构。
到店、酒旅业务增长由交易侧向广告侧转化，医美品类表现突出。到店和酒旅业务交易额同比增长20.7%至513亿元，货币化率从8.6%提升至10.2%，营业收入52.45亿元（QoQ+16.8%，YoY+43%）。活跃营销商户同比增长超过50%，ARPU贡献稳步增长，Q2到店业务广告收入同增61.3%，收入占比提升至47%。国内酒店间夜量同增28.8%至9400万，高星酒店的协同服务能力持续增强。此外，医美实现“交易+广告”双增长，跻身到综前五。出行业务亏损收窄，新业务毛利率改善明显。网约车业务从重成本的“自营模式”向轻成本的“聚合模式”转变，目前已经拓展至42个城市，在成本可控下实现品牌扩张。摩拜单车存量车折旧计提完毕，两者共同驱动新业务毛利率环比大幅改善20pct至9.13%。
投资建议：广告业务的发展是平台稳增长和保利润的核心因子，预计19~21年营收分别为933/1202/1458亿元，对应PS为3.9\3.0\2.5x，预计20年扭亏，综合SOTP和DCF算得每股合理价值79.64港元/股，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：餐饮外卖行业增速加速下滑；新兴业务开拓不及预期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
