中集安瑞科(3899.HK)积极应对需求放缓19H1业绩快速增长维持“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点
19H1业绩表现快速增长：公司公告2019年中期业绩：19H1，公司实现营业收入+16.5%至6,584百万元（人民币，下同），实现归属股东净利润+24.2%至383百万元。扣除股权激励费用后的核心净利润+32.5%至412百万元。三项核心业务保持增长，总体业绩依然保持较快的增幅。
能源装备行业需求不及年初预期，但公司业务依然保持快速增长：公司清洁能源装备业务收入同比增长24.0%至3,120百万元。根据wind数据，19H1国内天然气表观消费量同比增长11.66%，持续推动相关储运装备（如LNG车载瓶等）的需求增长。国内“储气调峰”相关需求也带来了部分订单，但行业整体需求由于政策落实的强度略低于我们此前的预期。能源装备业务整体毛利率也因为LNG运输车缺乏规模效益以及液化气船毛利率下滑而下滑至14.3%，同比减少0.7pct。
化工业务毛利率改善，液态食品饮料装备保持稳健：化工业务需求稳健增长，且受益于美元升值，收入同比增长13.7%至1,933百万元；毛利率同比提升0.7pct至15.4%。液态食品饮料装备保持稳健发展，并在收购DME业务影响下收入同比增长6.9%，达1,507百万元；毛利率稳定在17.0%。加强费用控制，净利率改善：公司19H1综合毛利率为15.6%，同比略微下滑了0.3pct。公司19H1在精益管理和控本增效方面取得了较好的成效，三费控制良好，整体净利润率达到5.81%，同比提升0.36pct。
盈利预测和投资评级：由于行业需求强度略低于我们年初预期，我们小幅调整了公司盈利预测，预计公司2019-2021年分别实现营业收入15,334、18,140和21,069百万元人民币，归属股东净利润944、1,288和1,608百万元人民币。考虑可比公司估值和公司发展情况，我们给予公司2019年15倍PE的合理估值，对应合理价值7.88港元/股。维持公司“买入”的投资评级。
风险提示：能源装备需求波动风险；汇率大幅波动风险；贸易争端演化具有不确定性的风险。
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