海底捞(6862.HK)门店加速扩张2019H1业绩靓丽维持“持有”评级目标价36港元
机构：国元证券
评级：持有
目标价：36港元
快速展店助业绩高速增长：
2019年上半年，公司新开门店130家，全球门店网络从2018年底的466家增至593家（去年同期为341家）。得益于快速展店，公司收入同比增长59.3%至116.95亿元；其中，餐厅经营、外卖业务、调味品及食材的收入占比分别96.9%/1.6%/1.5%,分别获得58.4%/40.9%/206.2%的同比增长。期内，因新增门店较多及加密影响，平均翻台率4.8次/天，与去年同期4.9次/天相若。客单价同比增长4.09%至104.4元。归股净利润9.11亿元，同比增长40.9%，利润增速不及收入主要因新开餐厅的开办费用增加及受到IFRS16影响，如果剔除该准则影响，公司利润增速超过50%。
同店稳步增长，三线及以下城市表现亮眼：
从同店运营数据来看，尽管公司快速展店，同店翻台率仍然获得增长，从2018H1的5.0次/天增至2019H1的5.2次/天。其中，一线/二线/三线及以下城市/境外的同店翻台率分别为5.1/5.3/5.1/4.3次/天，较去年同期分别增长0/0.1/0.4/0.4次/天。得益于同店翻台率的增加及客单价的提升，同店销售额同比增长4.7%。其中，一线/二线/三线及以下城市/境外的同店销售额同比分别增长3.3%/1.9%/12.5%/9.7%。
维持持有评级，目标价36港元：
下半年是火锅消费旺季，且今年上半年新开门店将逐步完成爬坡，下半年利润将获得更快增速。截至上半年底，公司拥有储备店长800名，为公司的快速展店提供有力支撑。考虑到公司上半年的开店速度超出预期以及受到IFRS16政策的影响，我们略调整原预测，预计2019-2021年EPS分别为0.50/0.71/0.92元，给予目标价36港元，对应2020年44倍PE、1.25倍PEG，维持持有评级。
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