瑞声科技（2018.HK）2019年中报点评大客户业务压力持续等待安卓高端产品放量驱动业绩回升
作者：光大海外TMT团队
来源：EBoversea
【文章摘要】
◆1H19营收同比下滑，盈利能力削弱
1H19公司实现营收75.7亿元人民币，同比下降10%，2Q19营收同比微升1%。由于产品订单减少、价格承压叠加新产品爬坡，毛利率同比下降9.2个百分点至27.5%。受毛利率下降及研发费率增加影响，净利率同比下降10.9个百分点至10.2%，对应净利润7.7亿元人民币，同比下降57%。
◆大客户声学业务持续承压，安卓SLS如期渗透有助业绩改善
1H19声学营收同比下降15%，收入占比48%，毛利率同比下降7.4个百分点至
30.1%，主要由于出货、ASP压力持续。大客户业务仍面临诸多抑制因素，包括大客户手机整体出货继续承压、供应链竞争持续带来价格份额压力等。安卓声学SLS如期渗透，公司指引2019年底将达致70%；伴随安卓SLS方案继续升级，出货量及ASP提升有望驱动2H19毛利率改善。
◆马达业务有待改善，结构件继续承压，步进电机放量面临不确定性
1H19电磁传动及结构件营收同比下降12%，毛利率同比下降9.9个百分点至29.7%，主要由于低毛利率的精密结构件营收占比扩大。马达大客户业务出货量、ASP均见下滑且短期难改善，后续安卓高端马达顺利放量，有望驱动马达业务改善。精密结构件渗透至更多安卓高端机型，然受行业竞争持续影响，毛利率承压，未来增长潜力能否兑现需观察其整体结构件方案价值能否获认可。新产品步进电机潜在市场规模存在不及预期风险，未来放量趋势仍待观察。
◆光学业务增长迅速，新应用趋势有助WLG上量
1H19光学业务营收同比上升73%，然而由于期内产能利用率较低，且产品结构仍待优化，毛利率表现不及预期。WLG技术参数渐趋优化，潜望式、高清主摄及屏下镜头等新应用趋势有助于WLG上量。MEMS业务营收同比上升11%，微机电系统晶片和数字化ASIC晶片自制比例提升驱动毛利率上升。
◆估值与评级
鉴于大客户声学、马达业务继续承压，下调19年EPS预测11%至2.12元人民币；鉴于安卓市场声学、马达、光学高端产品顺利放量有望驱动整体业绩回升，我们维持20/21年EPS预测分别为2.71/3.16元人民币。基于DCF估值法，下调目标价至45元港币，对应19/20年19x/15x PE，维持“中性”评级。
◆风险提示：声学升级迟缓；马达市场份额下降；金属机壳行业竞争加剧；3D玻璃渗透放缓。
【附录】
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