友信全球财讯 | 通用电气涉嫌“财务欺诈”中的危险信号
上周，曾经揭露过麦道夫庞氏骗局的著名财务专家马科波洛斯(Harry Markopoulos)及他的团队发表了一份关于通用电气的有关“财务欺诈”的报告。该报告长达175页。目前难以确定通用电气是否存在会计欺诈。Seeking Alpha撰稿人Thomas Lott试图指出其中一系列可见的危险信号供投资者参考。分析的关键是观察现金流的情况。
每年巨额的重组费用属于现金支出，但通用电气将其加入了净现金流和调整后的每股收益。今年的现金重组费用高达15亿美元。2018年和2017年，这些临时性费用为35亿美元和31亿美元，占息税前利润比重很大。当这些费用被加回non-GAAP（非通用会计准则）报告的数字，导致其数额持续巨大时，疑点很多。
养老金严重不足，缺口高达270亿美元，每年需240亿美元现金补充缺口。这还不包括定期服务成本，去年的费用高达28亿美元，也被加入到其息税前利润和调整后收益中，尽管这应属于现金项目。
运营活动的现金始终低于资本支出。2018年，通用电气的运营现金流为46亿美元，资本支出高达77亿美元。乐观地说，这是一种资本密集型的业务模式。而往坏的方面看，通用电气企图通过提高市值增加GAAP收益。不管怎样，现金比起收益更难伪造。过去3年公司产生的自由现金流很少。运营活动的现金流从未超过资本支出。
巨额的减值费用和损失也难以忽略。增加商誉的定期费用是可以接受的。但大额的非现金减值费用通常代表收购情况不良。2018年，通用电气降低资产账面额220亿美元。2017年降低了11亿美元。今年上半年又降低了约7.7亿美元。这些大规模的减记意味着通用电气为收购而支付的数额超过220亿美元。这些情况与通用的发电部门和2015年对阿尔斯通的收购有关。
目前，通用电气正以210亿美元的价格将其生物制药业务出售给达纳赫，其EBITDA倍数为17倍。这是一笔极好的业务，值得尝试。如今，通用电气在工业领域业务的交易市盈率约为11-12倍。
Seeking Alpha撰稿人Thomas Lott预计，通用电气在现金流和管理上都有问题，GAAP的实际数据非常糟糕。因此管理层不断强调non-GAAP和每股收益数字。他不建议持有该股票。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
