邮储银行(1658.HK)效率显著提升资产结构优化维持“增持”评级目标价6.47港元
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
目标价：6.47 港元
本报告导读： 邮储银行 19H1 业绩略超市场预期。管理效率提升带来成本端优化，贷款占比上升有 助稳定收益。维持目标价 6.47 港元，对应 19 年 1.0 倍 PB，现价空间 44%，增持。
摘要：
投资建议：考虑管理效率提升带来的成本优化，上调 19/20/21 年净利润增 速预测至 13.28%(+2.54pc)/13.58%(+1.75pc)/13.26%(+0.10pc) ， 对 应 EPS0.70/0.80/0.91 元，BVPS5.77/6.31/6.93 元。现价对应 5.75/5.03/4.42 倍 PE，0.70/0.64/0.58 倍 PB。维持目标价 6.47 港元，对应 19 年 1.0 倍 PB， 现价空间 44%，维持增持评级。 业绩概览：19H1 营收+7.02%，净利润+15.0%，净息差（日均余额口径） 2.55%。不良率 0.82%，环比-1bp，拨备覆盖率 396%，环比+35pc。
新的认识：效率显著提升，资产结构优化
效率显著提升。19H1 净利润同比+15.0%，增速较 19Q1 提升 2.7pc。 其中最大亮点在于 19H1 成本收入比同比大幅下降 4.8pc 至 51.0%，归 因于新一届董事会推动管理效率提升，使得：①运营费用压降，19H1` 一般运营及管理费同比下降 18.9%；②规范程度提升，使得诉讼的预 期损失减少、部分预计负债转回，因此对应的营业支出下降。
资产结构优化。体现为持续将低成本负债配置于高收益贷款：①存贷 比首次突破 50%，环比+2.1pc 至 51.7%；②贷款/总资产环比+1.8pc 至 45.2%。随着资本补充到位，邮储银行存贷比及贷款占比指标仍有 快速上升空间，将使邮储银行在利率下行期资产收益率相对更稳。
不良继续改善。资产质量延续 18 年中报后的改善趋势，体现为：① 不良率微降，环比-1bp 至 0.82%，逾期贷款率较 18 年末下降 2bp 至 0.97%；②安全垫增厚，拨备覆盖率环比+35pc 至 396%；
资本有望补充。当前已明确有两项资本补充计划：①证监会已受理邮 储银行 A 股招股说明书，回 A 进展顺利。保守测算若成功回归 A 股， 可提升核心一级资本充足率 43bp；②邮储银行计划发行不超过 800 亿元永续债，静态测算可提升资本充足率 168bp 至 14.66%。两项计 划合计可大幅提升资本充足率 211bp。
风险提示：宏观经济失速引发信用风险，存款成本超预期提升。
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