三生制药(1530.HK)公司业绩略超预期核心品种快速放量维持“买入”评级
机构：国金证券
评级：买入
目标价：无
事件
8 月 21 日，公司发布 2019 年中期业绩，整体业绩略超预期。收入约 26.43 亿元，同比约 21.6%；毛利率约 82.7%，同比提升约 2.4%；公司正常化归母 净利润约 7.52 亿元，同比增速约 34.1%。
评论
核心品种受益医保继续放量，特比澳快速放量增速超预期，益赛普增速稳 定：核心品种益赛普、特比澳、EPO（益比奥+赛博尔）占收入比例超 80%， 三个品种分别增速预计约 13.2%、42%、以及 5.8%。其中特比澳增速超预 期，我们预计与进入国家医保持续获益有关。其次，益赛普由于该科室患 者分散、年化用药金额贵、以及市场竞争等原因，保持稳定增速，预计全 年增速有望达到 15-20%。另外，赛博尔增约 32.3%，益比奥下降约 1%。
万晟化药业务增速较快，长效 GLP-1 有望今年医保谈判：子公司万晟是公 司的化药平台，预计增速约 42.7%，主要驱动来自赛博利及蔓迪等品种。另 外，公司代理阿斯利康短效艾塞那肽、长效艾塞那肽、以及礼来的二代胰 岛素，预计稳定增长。近日，医保目录调整，即将启动医保谈判，预计公 司长效艾塞那肽有望今年进行医保谈判，未来预计有更强市场竞争力。
公司在研管线不断丰富，新品获批在即，对外合作喜事频传：公司目前在 研品种 32 个，22 个为 1 类新药。目前即将获批上市品种包括赛普汀、益赛 普预充针等品种。处于临床早期并有较好前景品种或靶点包括 PD-1、 IL17、IL4、IL5、及双抗品种等。NuPIAO、RD001、SSS07 等已开展二期临 床。其次，PD-1 已在美国入组一期临床，并获中国 CDE 临床申请受理；IL17 已获中国 CDE 临床试验批准，预计即将开启入组。对外战略合作方面公 司进展突出，未来有望延续。目前对外合作方面主要集中在下一代肿瘤免 疫项目，包括业界首创巨噬细胞检查点抑制剂（MCM）的 Verseau、致力于 CART 领域的 Refuge、以及小分子创新药企业亚盛医药，未来可期。
估值与盈利预测
公司业绩稳定增长，给予 2019-2021 三年 EPS 分别为 0.62/0.74/0.86 元， PE 分别为 18.8/15.8/13.5 倍。
风险提示
益赛普下半年销售放量不达预期；益比奥销售竞争激烈，有下滑风险；国 健在建转固影响现金流风险；研发不达预期，赛普汀获批进度不达预期。
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