香港交易所(0388.HK)公司半年报上半年净利润小幅增长北向交易活跃给予“优于大市”评级目标价280.8-314.6港元
机构：海通证券
评级：优于大市
目标价：280.8-314.6 港元
投资要点：
⚫ 【事件】港交所 2019 年上半年实现收入及其他收益 86 亿港元，同比增长 5%; 归母净利润 52 亿港元，同比增长 3%，对应 EPS 4.16 港元。上半年业绩小幅 增长主要来自于集体投资计划（投资收益同比增加 4.83 亿港元）及保证金利息 的增长。
⚫ 现货市场日均交易额下滑，现货分部收入小幅下滑。2019 年上半年现货分部实 现收入 19 亿港元，同比-11%，收入占比 22%。上半年香港现货市场交投较去年 同期淡静，日均交易额下滑 23%，二季度交易环比下滑 6%。受益于 MSCI 提高 A 股权重，北向交易继续创新高，日均交易额同比上升 122%，而南向交易额下 滑 32%。联交所 IPO 发行 84 家，同比减少 24 家，主要系 GEM 上市数大幅减 少。
⚫ 联交所牛熊证、权证等交易量下滑，交易制度继续完善。2019 年上半年股本证 券及金融衍生品分部收入 16 亿港元，同比-6%。期交所衍生产品日均合约张数小 幅增长，但联交所牛熊证及权证等日均交易额下滑 13%。此外，新上市衍生权证 数同比下滑 13%，新上市牛熊证数同比下滑 2%，上市费下滑 9%。
⚫ 现货市场结算费下滑，投资净回报率增长驱动投资收益增长。2019 年上半年结 算收入 33 亿港元，同比增长 4%。交易宗数减少导致现货市场结算费小幅下滑； 投资收益净额同比增长 24%，主要是由于存款利率上升，19H1 年化投资净回报 率增加 0.41 个百分点至 1.09%。受益于 MSCI 权重提升及互联互通的深化，19 年上半年沪深港通结算设施使用率继续上升，特别独立户口增长 17%，北向交收 指示的日均金额同比增长 59%。
⚫ 商品分部：持续推出新品种。2019 年上半年商品分部实现收入 7 亿港元，同比 小幅下滑 2%。主要是由于金属合约日均成交量同比下滑 6%。未来 LME 还将通 过推出新合约、系统升级及调整市场架构等战略方针，持续深化 LME 改革。同 时通过设立前海联合交易中心，内地再造 LME。
⚫ 合理价值区间 280.8-314.6 港元，给予“优于大市”评级。我们估算港交所 2019/20/21E 实现营业总收入分别为 176.06/191.77/209.34 亿港元，同比 +11%/9%/9%；归属于港交所股东的净利润分别为104.48/114.49/125.66亿港元， 同比+12%/10%/10%；对应 EPS 分别为 8.30/9.10/9.99 港元。使用二阶段 DDM 对港交所估值，得出合理价值区间 280.8-314.6 港元，对应 2019E PE 分别为 33.81-37.88 倍。给予“优于大市”评级。
⚫ 风险提示：香港现货及衍生品交易量大幅萎缩；互联互通进展停滞；LME 改革效 果不达预期，量价齐跌。
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