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香港交易所(0388.HK)估值渐回低位高股息防御属性彰显维持“增持”评级
格隆汇 08-16 14:57

机构:广发证券

评级:增持

核心观点

归母净利润增速3%,投资收益增长对冲市场成交活跃度下滑影响

与2018年同期相比,2019上半年香港市场整体成交量回落拖累港交所业绩,而受益投资收益净值增长及沪深港通收入大增对冲负面影响,2019年上半年,香港交易所实现总营业收入85.78亿港元,同比增长4.7%;归属股东净利润52.05亿港元,同比增长3.3%;中期股息每股3.72港元,派息率保持在90%。

交易量短期仍承压

上半年现货分部受累于股本证券产品日均成交金额下滑25%,拖累交易费及交易系统使用费收入下跌21%和9%。沪深港通北向交易活跃,沪股通和深股通日均成交金额为235和204亿元人民币,同比增长110%和137%,对冲部分影响。美国及欧洲经济衰退担忧、国际贸易争端、人民币汇率等影响市场成交的压力短期难释,香港市场交易量可能持续承压。

低估值高防御属性,维持增持评级

公司高股息率在当前市场不确定性加强下反映出较强防御属性。同股不同权纳入沪深通市场问询已于8月9日结束,推出可期,交易机制完善有望持续活跃沪深港通交易量,加之上市机制改革持续对新经济企业具有吸引力。预测公司2019、2020年实现净利润96.68、100.70亿港元,EPS7.70元/股和8.00元/股,对应最新收盘价PE为30.5x、29.4x。从历史估值来看,公司PE(TTM)中枢在30倍-44倍之间,当前处于估值低位。给予2019年37xPE估值,对应合理价值284.9港元/股,维持对公司增持评级。

风险提示

市场成交持续下滑;科创板推进下港交所对上市公司的吸引力下降;交易所牌照如果放开可能削弱港交所竞争优势等。

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