香港交易所(0388.HK)1H19业绩微增维持长期相对收益标的观点维持“买入”评级
机构：光大证券
评级：买入
◆1H19业绩微增
总收入同比增长5%至85.8亿港币；扣除IFRS会计调整后的EBITDA利润率同比下降2个百分点至75%；归母净利润同比增长3%至52.1亿港币（约占我们全年盈利预测的47%）。1H19的业绩微增，主要由于投资收益净额增加、保证金/公司资金利息收入增加、以及沪深港通收入增加，部分对冲了去年高基数的因素影响。
◆现货市场日均交易量或有趋缓压力
1）现货市场方面：2Q19股本证券/股本衍生产品日均交易量分别同比下降13.3%/3.3%、环比上升2.3%/下降3.0%；其中，港股通南下日均交易量占比同比/环比下降0.6/0.2个百分点至8.0%（港股通总收入占比约5.9%达5.1亿港币）。2）衍生产品方面：2Q19股票期权/金融衍生产品日均交易量分别同比上升1.3%/6.3%、环比下降7.6%/上升3.7%。贸易摩擦/市场风险或导致现货日均交易量趋缓，但金融衍生产品日均交易量仍有望保持稳健（我们预计2019E现货日均交易量同比下降11%至957亿港币，期交所金融衍生产品日均交易量同比增长1%至69.2万张）。
◆维持长期相对收益标的观点不变
我们看好公司长期发展前景，维持公司为长期相对收益标的观点不变。1）衍生产品或部分对冲现货市场波动、叠加成本控制与高分红比例（90%），公司相比于其他金融标的或仍具一定防御型属性。2）2Q19港股通北上日均交易量同比/环比上升143.1%/29.0%，持续看好外资资金涌入A股市场带动的港股通北上交易量增长前景。3）鉴于外资对A股风险管理的需求扩大，看好A股指数衍生产品推出带动的交易量与收入贡献前景。4）同股不同权公司有望纳入港股通标的，机制的完善有望进一步提振港股流动性。5）看好A股国际化带动的长期直接受益属性。
◆维持“买入”评级
考虑到包括A股指数衍生等各项产品落地时间点的不确定性、以及贸易摩擦/市场风险，我们下调2019E/2020E/2021E归母净利润分别至94.2亿港币/104.2亿港币/110.8亿港币，下调DDM目标价至HK$276.6（对应约37.0x2019E PE），维持“买入”评级。
◆核心风险
提示IPO上市/市场日均交易量不及预期，政策/市场风险。
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