鹰普精密(1286.HK)百舸争流“鹰“击长空首次覆盖给予“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
由中国迈向全球的精密零部件综合制造商
鹰普精密是一家高精密度、高复杂性的关键铸件和机加工零部件综合制造商，主要业务为熔模铸造、精密机加工、砂型铸造及表面处理。根据招股书资料，公司是全球第七大独立熔模铸造制造商，及全球第四大精密机加工企业。2018年公司收入37.5亿港币，其中熔模铸造板块收入15.8亿港币，占比42.2%，是公司最主要的业务。公司实施“内生+外延”双轮驱动战略，积极扩张全球布局，2018年来自美国、欧洲、中国的收入比例分别为42.0%、32.6%、22.9%。
多优势构筑核心竞争力，逐步向航空、医疗领域拓展
公司的下游客户集中于各行业的领先企业，合作年限平均达14年，并提供产品生命周期内的一站式解决方案，这些优势构成公司的核心竞争力。在企业经营方面，公司的收入规模、人均产值与全球龙头相比还有较大差距；但成长速度较快，2018年收入增速23%，且毛利率保持稳定。公司现有业务的终端市场包括汽车、液压设备、工程机械、大马力发动机等，近年来公司围绕技术研发，向航空、医疗领域突破，近三年航空市场收入复合增长率34%，有望提高发展空间。
盈利预测和投资评级：作为精密零部件综合制造商，随着国内工厂制造过程持续优化，墨西哥和土耳其工厂陆续释放产能，公司有望提升盈利能力和全球范围内的市占率。我们预测公司19-21年的营业收入有望达到42/46/49亿港币；EPS分别为0.351，0.418和0.467港币/股。公司经营稳定，业务全球化布局，拥有国内较高的产业地位，积极布局终端行业，参照可比公司的估值水平，给予公司2019年13倍PE的合理估值，对应合理价值4.56港元/股。首次覆盖给予“买入”的投资评级。
风险提示：中美贸易摩擦风险；终端市场受宏观经济影响而周期性变化；原材料的快速上涨影响公司盈利能力；海外市场业务风险及汇率风险。
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