信义光能(0968.HK)中场调整维持“买入”评级目标价4.85港元
机构：申万宏源
评级：买入
目标价：4.85港元
信义光能公布2019年中期业绩：实现营收40亿港元，同比-4.3%，归母净利9.5亿港元，同比-21.5%。公司拟派每股中期股息5.5港仙。考虑到公司充足的现金流，计划投产的四条产线以及信义能源的分拆，我们下调19年EPS至0.32港元，上调20年EPS至0.42港元，21年EPS至0.49港元。我们将目标价由4.55港元上调至4.85港元，对应2.6倍19年PB以及15倍19年PE。维持买入评级。
经营业绩。公司19年上半年实现营收40亿港元，同比-4.3%，其中光伏玻璃板块营收29.2亿港元，同比-5.9%，光伏发电板块营收10.2亿港元，同比+8.4%。光伏玻璃板块实现毛利8.0亿元，同比-23.0%，毛利率27.3%（去年同期33.4%），主要由于光伏玻璃售价下滑以及能源成本上升。光伏发电板块录得毛利7.6亿港币，同比+7.8%，毛利率74.5%，较去年同期轻微下滑，主要由于发电量下滑以及一季度不利天气的影响。公司录得归母净利9.5亿港元，同比-21.5%，主要由于光伏玻璃价格下滑。此外，信义能源分拆上市使公司的权益比例由75%下降至52.7%，融资成本由18年末的3.85%上升至目前的4.1%，对净利均有影响。
稳健的资产负债表。信义能源分拆上市后，公司的净负债率由66.2%大幅降至20.2%。上半年经营活动现金净流入4.9亿港元，公司目前持有现金43.5亿港元。据管理层披露，公司于7月收到政府补贴3.1亿人民币。
光伏玻璃板块前景光明。公司计划新增四条1,000吨/日的产线，产能扩充计划如下：19年3季度达7,800吨/日，20年上半年达9,800吨/日，20年下半年达11,800吨/日。广西北海两条新增产线预期分别在2020年一季度和二季度投产，安徽芜湖两条产线预期2020年下半年投产。此外，为更好地控制原材料成本上涨、确保原材料长期稳定供应，公司收购广西北海一座低铁硅砂矿，该矿场预期2020年年初开始运营。行业层面，国内竞价项目落地，美国取消对双玻组件25%的201关税，政策边际改善将刺激19年下半年的光伏装机需求，从而利好子行业光伏玻璃板块。我们认为双玻组件渗透率提高将利好公司。
维持买入。我们下调19年EPS至0.32港元，上调20年EPS至0.42港元，21年EPS至0.49港元。我们将目标价由4.55港元上调至4.85港元，对应2.6倍19年PB以及15倍19年PE。
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