2019年中报点评|中国光大绿色环保(1257.HK)升级正当其时转型潜移默化目标价为6.56港元维持“买入”评级
机构：中信证券
评级：买入
目标价：6.56港元
核心观点
2019H1业绩符合预期。建造服务收入占比下滑6个百分点至53%，收入质量上升；生物质综合利用升级，危废&土壤等工业环保布局已见成效；维持2019~2021年EPS预测分别为0.82/1.09/1.27港元，目标价6.56港元，维持“买入”评级。
▍上半年业绩0.39港元，符合预期。公司2019H1实现营业收入42.41亿港元，同比增长35%；实现EBITDA13.69亿港元，同比增长33%；归母净利润8.13亿港元，同比增长26%，折算基本每股收益0.39港元。H1业绩占我们全年预测的47.8%，符合预期。此外，公司计划派发中期股息0.08港元。
▍各领域齐头并进，盈利质量稳步提升。生物质运营项目达到24个，上半年上网电网16.5亿千瓦时，同比增长52%；运营危废项目17个，设计危废处置能力184万吨/年，同比增长107%；环境修复业务拓展顺利，在执行项目达到15个，涉及合同金额人民币4.25亿元。建造、服务、财务收入均录得不俗表现，上半年分别增长19%/57%/48%，其中建造工程收入在营收占比下降6个百分点至53%，收入质量延续前期的上升趋势。期间费用方面，管理及财务费用率分别下滑0.1/0.7个百分点，彰显管理效率。
▍生物质业务升级进展顺利，工业环保持续突破助推公司转型。公司在传统生物质领域积极向热电联产模式升级，H1蒸汽产量达到35.3万吨（+153%），明显快于同期发电量增长。公司工业环保布局初见成效，H1危废处理量增长19%至8.2万吨，在执行的土壤合同约4.3亿元，贡献新的业绩增长点。考虑到公司强大的市场拓展能力、丰富的项目储备、充裕的在手资金，我们预计公司危废&土壤修复领域将延续高增态势，推动公司成为工业环保领域新龙头。
▍风险因素。在建&筹建项目执行进度低于预期；生物质原料供给不足或价格上升；宏观经济波动致使公司工业废物量及毛利率变动幅度超预期。
▍盈利预测及估值。考虑上半年业绩符合预期，维持2019~2021年EPS预测0.82/1.09/1.27港元，当前股价对应P/E分别为6/5/4倍。公司凭借资源、模式、管理三大壁垒铸就竞争优势，生物质及危废密集投产助业绩高增，环境修复业务增长迅速且收入结构持续优化确定性高。参考可比公司给予2019年8倍目标P/E，对应目标价为6.56港元，维持“买入”评级。
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