保利协鑫能源(3800.HK)至暗时刻维持”增持“评级目标价0.45港元
机构：申万宏源
评级：增持
目标价：0.45港元
保利协鑫公布19年中期业绩：营收100.0亿人民币，同比-9.3%，公司拥有人应占期内利润亏损9.98亿元，同比-361.1%。考虑到公司相对前期有所改善的经营性现金流、近期资本运作以及强劲的市场需求，我们维持19年EPS0.01元不变，下调20年EPS至0.03元，预测21年EPS为0.06元。我们将目标价由0.5港元下调至0.45港元，对应0.4倍19年PB，维持增持评级。
分部业绩。公司19年上半年实现营收100.0亿人民币，同比-9.3%，其中光伏材料业务营收65.8亿元，同比-18.4%（18年同期80.6亿元），光伏电站业务营收2.5亿元，同比-5.3%（18年同期2.6亿元），新能源业务（协鑫新能源运营）营收31.7亿元，同比+17.3%（18年同期27.0亿元）。公司期内录得亏损9.98亿人民币，同比-361.1%，其中光伏材料业务亏损13.1亿元（18年同期盈利2.6亿元）。光伏电站业务利润0.64亿元，与去年同期持平。新能源业务利润5.5亿元，同比+18.9%，主要由于售电量增长22%以及新增装机增长。
光伏材料板块。19年上半年，公司生产36,592公吨多晶硅（同比+3.4%，去年同期35,374公吨）和14,658MW硅片（同比+10.7%，去年同期13,239MW）。公司出售20,731公吨多晶硅和14,737MW硅片，同比分别增长295.9%和21.8%，去年同期分别售出5,237公吨多晶硅和12,098MW硅片。光伏材料板块毛利率仅为0.9%，主要由于19年上半年硅片价格下降较大。19年上半年多晶硅和硅片平均不含税售价分别为60.9元/kg和0.42元/W，18年同期为99.0元/kg和0.70元/W。随着国内竞价项目在7月中旬落地，国内需求有望在下半年启动。叠加强劲的海外需求，我们预计下半年硅料和硅片价格将有所反弹，利好公司。
经营现金流有所改善。公司19年上半年经营活动现金进流入42亿元（18年同期18亿元）。净现金流出5亿元，18年同期净流出27亿元，相比之下有所改善。公司贷款总额达640亿元，其中252亿元在一年内到期。据管理层披露，公司目前获得公司债、中期票据、银行借款融资额度公司78亿，在手现金119亿，出售各类资产获得现金42亿，当前现金资源及融资额度共计239亿元。考虑到铸锭单晶产品逐渐获得下游厂商接受，我们认为公司将逐步走出财务困境。
维持增持。我们维持19年EPS0.01元不变，下调20年EPS至0.03元，预测21年EPS为0.06元。我们将目标价由0.5港元下调至0.45港元，对应0.4倍19年PB，维持增持评级。
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