2019中报点评|信义玻璃(0868.HK)龙头稳步逆势扩张维持“增持”评级
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
目标价：11.5港元
本报告导读：
我们认为公司中报业绩符合预期，盈利能力远超行业，浮法产能逆势扩张。
摘要：
维持“增持”评级。公司19H1实现收入74.5亿港元，同减3.8%，归母净利21.25亿港元，同增5.8%，每股派息25港仙，对应年化股息率超6%，业绩符合预期（稳定性远超玻璃同业公司）。考虑到贸易摩擦等因素，下调公司2019-20年归母净利至43.9、49.6亿港元，分别同增3.4%、13%，对应19年PE约7X，同比例下调目标价至11.5港元。
浮法：盈利能力远超行业，产能逆势扩张。上半年板块收入35.28亿港币，同降14.7%，毛利率27.97%，同降5.5pct。我们判断主要源于销售均价的下行以及人民币汇率的波动，测算公司浮法均价同比下滑约7%，销量同比基本持平。根据行业协会的统计，沙河玻璃企业上半年毛利率区间仅为5-14%，公司盈利能力远好于沙河，而公司广西北海高品质硅砂矿建成后，制造成本有望进一步下行。19H1公司资本开支约12亿港元，预计全年超25亿，目前在建6条产线总日熔量约4700t，预计2020年底前全部投产。公司产能逆势扩张，成长性愈发鲜明。
建筑玻璃：量价齐升，差异化产品占比提升。19H1板块收入及毛利分别大幅增加15.2%、19%，毛利率提升1.19pct至40.17%。我们认为板块经营获益于高附加值（中空、双中空等）产品渗透率的提升，伴随着需求增量及单位价格的上升，测算报告期内量、价对于收入的提振效应基本相同。普通建筑玻璃周期一般与浮法拟合，公司板块盈利逆势上行，彰显逆周期属性。
汽玻：替换市场的需求稳态趋势，板块盈利穿越汽车行业低谷期。报告期内板块收入约22.04亿港元，同增4.2%，毛利率同比提升1pct至45.93%。分拆来看，板块盈利能力的提升主要源于后市场汽玻的拉动，测算销量同增约6%，替换玻璃与汽车保有量正相关，销量稳中有升验证了公司逆行业周期的盈利稳态；而公司OEM汽玻销量下滑超10%，基本与国内新车产销增速相匹配。
风险提示：房地产调控趋紧、汇率变动风险
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