中国食品(0506.HK)基本面持续向上估值底部已现首次覆盖给予“买入”评级目标价4.0港元
机构：国金证券
评级：买入
目标价：4.0港元
基本结论
资产重组并理顺定位，中粮集团唯一专业化全品类饮料平台：2017年中国食品旗下中可饮料资产重组，同时中国食品剥离非饮料资产（仅剩中可饮料），未来定位于中粮集团唯一专业化全品类饮料平台。我们认为，中可饮料当前战略清晰，品牌力领先，通路精耕程度在饮料行业中遥遥领先，背靠中粮集团可与美国可口可乐形成良好协同效应，在当前饮料行业“混战”情形下，已经拥有较强优势和坚实发展基础，预期将有较为稳步的增长。
2018年中国食品深化调整，业绩持续改善：2018年全年中国食品实现营业收入156.48亿元（+17.14%）；从分部业绩来看，2018年饮料分部业绩预计为5.48亿元（+141.6%）。业绩实现快速提升主要在于新并购厂管理改善、新品推出以及产品结构的优化。除去一季度同比并购厂提供的增量外，2018年中可饮料在收入端拥有较往年更高的有机增长（预计为10%），结合不断深化调整内部管理，实现并购厂业绩的改善，推动盈利弹性持续提升。
迎发展机遇而上，未来有望实现稳健增长：预计公司将持续进行“变相提价”拉动毛利率的持续提升，再加上增值税下调丰厚利润（预计2019年提升净利率0.6pct）以及销售规模增加后费用率下降，将持续为利润创造一定空间，有望持续推动利润率的上升。我们预期中国食品目前及未来1-3年内将持续发生较大的变化，包括混改的进展提速、持续“提价”和产品结构的优化、全品类战略的实施等，都将给中国食品带来崭新的面貌，并持续推动着一个全新的、具备更多市场份额优势的全品类饮料公司的诞生。
投资建议
预计公司2019-2021年收入分别为171.2亿元/186.4亿元/201.7亿元，同比+9.4%/+8.8%/+8.2%；归母净利润分别为4.0亿元/4.8亿元/5.8亿元（三年复合增速为21.7%），同比+24.2%/+21.5%/+19.3%，对应净利率分别为4.2%/4.7%/5.1%，折合EPS为0.14元/0.17元/0.21元，对应2019-2021年PE为21X/17X/14X。以19年行业平均估值（25倍PE）为基础，给予目标价4.0港元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。
风险提示
需求下滑/新产品增速不达预期/混改延期/美国可口可乐产品对接变动风险/食品安全问题。
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